Talk:2006 Atlantic hurricane season

Please remember to sign your comments using "~~~~"! (This request includes anonymous users.) Discussion should be limited to the article and related issues (like the season itself). For off-topic discussion and others, see below for special discussion areas.

Archives: 1

Monthly Event Archives: January Storm Event Archives: Specialized Discussion: Betting Pools, Off-topic

Other Basin Talkpages: Atlantic - W. Pacific - E. Pacific - S. Hemisphere - N. Indian

February

Week 1

Peace and quiet. Gotta love the peak of the off-season...can this be the first month free of tropical activity since last May? (It also helps that it has the fewest number of days) CrazyC83 04:43, 1 February 2006 (UTC)

I'm glad that "First Atlantic season to have a storm form in January" will not go to 2006. 11 months of possibilities to go. :p --AySz88^-^ 05:03, 1 February 2006 (UTC)

Fortunately, this month is the shortest, and the conditions are about as unfavorable as it gets for tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic. Enjoy it while it lasts though - spring is coming faster than you think! CrazyC83 19:49, 2 February 2006 (UTC)

More importantly, the SSTs are finally getting too low to support cyclogenesis. We still could get a tropical storm this month in the Carribean, though. --EMS | Talk 02:54, 4 February 2006 (UTC)

Please don't tempt fate, CrazyC83 kept speculating last season and a lot of outrageous stuff ended up coming true... -- Sarsaparilla39 05:55, 6 February 2006 (UTC)

CrazyC83 doesn't make the weather, seriously. Mike H. That's hot 07:00, 6 February 2006 (UTC)

La Niña Is Here

Report issued by NOAA today says La Niña is most definitely here. -- RattleMan 22:47, 2 February 2006 (UTC)

What could that mean? Stronger storms sooner? CrazyC83 03:48, 3 February 2006 (UTC)

It means more and longer lasting storms due to lower shear in the Atlantic. Storm stength will be governed by the Atlantic SSTs, not the Pacific ones however. --EMS | Talk 02:54, 4 February 2006 (UTC)

Wow, this can be serious. Approximately how many storms can form before June? Memicho 03:01, 4 February 2006 (UTC)

I think that there have only been a handful of May storms. It really is not until June that the seasonal wind shear relaxes and the SSTs rise into the range that supports cyclogenesis. However, do watcth the current SSTs as the year goes on. Note that even now the water off of Cape Verde and the Congo is hot! That is an ongoing upwelling of warmer waters. That upwelling water is cooling quickly now as it heads to the west, but come summer I expect that it will make the areas of the north Atlantic which are now yellow through orange will become a bright, angry red. If that should happen, there will be times that the north Atlantic will literally be full of storms. All that could hold the number of storms down would be strong wind shear, and that brings us back to there being a La Niña this year. --EMS | Talk 18:43, 6 February 2006 (UTC)

Week 2

Looks like there is something in the NW Carribean again. I have not seen any models so I have no idea what (official) chance there is of a storm forming out of this. What I can say is that it seems to be under shear and that the SSTs are relatively low there now. So cyclogenensis seems to be unlikely there at this time IMO. --EMS | Talk 15:50, 7 February 2006 (UTC)

The Central Caribbean still has SST's capable of tropical development...and this is almost as cold as the waters are going to get... CrazyC83 17:52, 7 February 2006 (UTC)

It looks like cutoff convection from a front in the west central Atlantic. There's a great deal of shear and dry air in the area, which should inhibit any development. --Coredesat 19:28, 7 February 2006 (UTC)

We've got some time left in the complete off-season. March 10 is the anti-peak of the hurricane season. —Cuiviénen (Cuivië) 03:39, 8 February 2006 (UTC)

I don't know that the waters in the Carribean are truly "as low as they will get". They usually are a bit cooler this time of year, and I have the feeling there of winter slowly making itself felt in the SSTs, which are lower now than even a couple of weeks ago. I do agree that the current SSTs there can support cyclogenesis. (Note that I said that the SSTs are relatively low.) However, the overall situation is far from condusive to it. In fact, it seems that a cold front has just gotten to this little system and is already breaking it up. --EMS | Talk 04:28, 8 February 2006 (UTC)

AoI:02W2A - East-Central Atlantic

In the meantime, I now notice a Vince/Zeta type of cyclone spinning south of the Azores. However, the SSTs there really are quite cool, and unless this system should sink down towards the equator tropical development would be a major surprise. --EMS | Talk 04:28, 8 February 2006 (UTC)

It looks quite impressive, but 21C water is not conducive to tropical activity. Stranger things have happened, but I think the chance of it become Alberto are only about 15%. CrazyC83 21:53, 8 February 2006 (UTC)

Remember, Epsilon survied in that water. --24.85.161.198 23:11, 8 February 2006 (UTC)

Early storms

What if Alberto or Beryl form before june? Does that mean that this 2006 Atlantic hurricane season will be active or what? Memicho 18:51, 15 January 2006 (UTC)

Yes, it will. bob rulz 08:56, 16 January 2006 (UTC)

ok then let's hope that this hurricane season doesn't be like that or like last season memiwix 01:47, 17 January 2006 (UTC)

First of all, there is no known corolation between early storms and active seasons. That said, I think that it is very significant that Dr. Gray's early forecast is for 17 storms. I see every indication that this year will have very warm Atlantic SSTs, and will also be a very active season. --EMS | Talk 05:15, 30 January 2006 (UTC)

So how many storms are you thinking that there are going to be? Memicho 23:26, 31 January 2006 (UTC)

I'm still holding on to 16 storms, but that might be a low estimate. CrazyC83 04:55, 1 February 2006 (UTC)

Mmmm, good prediction, I think there are going to be 13 storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 Major hurricanes. Joyce will be the strongest as a category 5 and it will hit Alabama as a cat. 4. Ernesto will be the deadliest, more than 2000 deaths, most of them in Haiti. And Beryl will hit Mexico as a category 1, but Beryl's remnants will become hurricane Carlotta in the Eastern Pacific and it will become a Major hurricane and then will hit Mexico. So I also think it will be an active season and it also will be a very strange season. Memicho 02:02, 4 February 2006 (UTC)

I will call for 28 storms, including one (a minimal tropical storm) in February. The 2006 season will pick up in June where 2005 left off, with storms forming in the eastern Atlantic as well as in the Carribean. However, late in the year there will be an upwelling of colder waters bringing a very overactive season to a very sudden end. Also, I will call for 14 hurricanes, 8 major hurricanes and 3 category 5 hurricanes, but most of these will be out in the middle of the ocean. I see no catgory 5 landfalls, but there will be at least two category 3/4 landfalls. --EMS | Talk 03:06, 4 February 2006 (UTC)

Weak La Niña

The NOAA just released a statement predicting weak La Niña conditions this year. That will only exacerbate what's already predicted to be a very active season. - Cuivienen 02:36, 19 January 2006 (UTC)

Jeff Masters said that the models show the La Nina going away by the peak of the season, so maybe we'll get lucky.....right, lucky, haha. :p --AySz88^-^ 03:55, 19 January 2006 (UTC)

Wonder if it'll mean earlier tropical storms. Fableheroesguild 05:02, 19 January 2006 (UTC)

A May system, even a weak May hurricane, isn't unlikely. - Cuivienen 12:27, 19 January 2006 (UTC)

Supposedly La Nina lowers shear in the North Atlantic. So it won't help with the low water temperatures of the early season, but come March or May it'll mean a higher chance of development. — jdorje (talk) 09:57, 4 February 2006 (UTC)

What about El Niño?

Are there also going to be weak conditions this year? Memicho 16:24, 29 January 2006 (UTC)

The section right above this message notes that there'll probably be a weak La Nina or neutral conditions. (La Nina is the opposite of El Nino.) --AySz88^-^ 19:09, 29 January 2006 (UTC)

Ahh, didn't Know know that. Thanks for the information. Memicho 23:07, 29 January 2006 (UTC)

Zeta revisited

Based on some work I've done in the 1955 Atlantic hurricane season and 1966 Atlantic hurricane season, I think the Zeta section should eventually go in an "Other storms" subsection. (It's possible that tropical depressions should also go in this section, as they are not technically tropical cyclones, but I don't have a strong opinion on that.) — jdorje (talk) 05:31, 3 February 2006 (UTC)

Tropical depressions ARE tropical cyclones, and they should remain where they are - otherwise, the sequence goes out of order. CrazyC83 19:39, 3 February 2006 (UTC)

I do not believe they are. For instance, they are not included in the s:Atlantic hurricane best track, and adding them in the article causes the sequence to be, well, out of order, making it a lot harder to compare the data in the season to the best-track. — jdorje (talk) 20:36, 3 February 2006 (UTC)

Of course they are, they are no different to tropical storms, they just have lower windspeed. Jamie C 22:00, 3 February 2006 (UTC)

Completely agreed. A tropical cyclone is simply a warm-core circulation in an area of low pressure with sufficiently organized convection. I, for one, with they were included in the best track. They can be as deadly as tropical storms in some parts of the world (see Hurricane Paul, which killed 1,000 as a depression), and do have some part in the season's activity. What would you consider more active? 2002, with 14 tropical cyclones (and 12 named storms), or 1999, with 16 tropical cyclones (and 12 named storms)? Hurricanehink 22:27, 3 February 2006 (UTC)

Everything I have read indicates they are not; they do differ from tropical storms because they have lower windspeed (just like tropical disturbances also differ on windspeed). (1) Depression state is not counted for storm formation and dissipation date, or for storm duration. (2) Depressions, unlike tropical cyclones, are not named. (3) Depressions do not get counted toward the ACE. (4) They are not included in the best-track (though subtropical storms definitely aren't tropical, and they are included in the best-track). Personally, I don't know why they'd set the cutoff at 39 mph rather than 25 mph or 15 mph or 74 mph, but that does seem to be what the NHC has done. I would be interested to see a straight-out answer to this from an official source, however. Meteorologists have changed their minds about lots of things dealing with tcs over the years, and if they were to decide to include tds in the best-track in the future...it would make things a lot easier. Also BTW, the tropical cyclone article covers nomenclature, but does not mention either tropical storm or tropical depression AFAICT. — jdorje (talk) 22:39, 3 February 2006 (UTC)

I remember proposing that the 2005 TDs go into an "Other Storms" section a few months back; that was shouted down... I do think that this is still a good idea, however. -- Sarsaparilla39 05:59, 6 February 2006 (UTC)