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In June 2005 and again in early 2006, Kunstler predicted that the [[Dow Jones Industrial Average|Dow]] would crash to 4,000 by the end of the year.<ref name="blownDow2005">{{Cite web|url=http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/clusterfuck_nation/2005/06/lahar_rules.html|title=Cluster Fuck Nation June 2005|accessdate=2007-02-20|year=2005|author=James Kunstler|format=html}}</ref> <ref name="blownDow">{{Cite web|url=http://www.energybulletin.net/11934.html|title=Kunstler Predictions for 2006|accessdate=2007-07-07|year=2006|author=James Kunstler|format=html}}</ref> The Dow in fact reached a new peak by 2007. In his [http://www.kunstler.com/Mags_Forecast2007.html predictions for 2007], however, Kunstler admitted his mistake stating "''Let's get this out of the way up front: the worst call I made last year was for the Dow to crumble down to 4000 when, in fact, it melted up to a new all-time record high of about 12,500. The reason we saw this, in my opinion, was that inertia combined with sheer luck to keep the finance sector decoupled from reality…''".
In June 2005 and again in early 2006, Kunstler predicted that the [[Dow Jones Industrial Average|Dow]] would crash to 4,000 by the end of the year.<ref name="blownDow2005">{{Cite web|url=http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/clusterfuck_nation/2005/06/lahar_rules.html|title=Cluster Fuck Nation June 2005|accessdate=2007-02-20|year=2005|author=James Kunstler|format=html}}</ref> <ref name="blownDow">{{Cite web|url=http://www.energybulletin.net/11934.html|title=Kunstler Predictions for 2006|accessdate=2007-07-07|year=2006|author=James Kunstler|format=html}}</ref> The Dow in fact reached a new peak by 2007. In his [http://www.kunstler.com/Mags_Forecast2007.html predictions for 2007], however, Kunstler admitted his mistake stating "''Let's get this out of the way up front: the worst call I made last year was for the Dow to crumble down to 4000 when, in fact, it melted up to a new all-time record high of about 12,500. The reason we saw this, in my opinion, was that inertia combined with sheer luck to keep the finance sector decoupled from reality…''".


Kunstler correctly predicted, however, that in [[2006]] the [[United States housing bubble]] would start to deflate, which appears to be borne out by latest data. <ref name="Hamilton downturn">"No question about it, the housing downturn is here now, and it's big." {{cite news | last=Hamilton | first=Jim | title=New home sales continue to fall | date=[[25 August]] [[2006]] | publisher=Econbrowser | url=http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2006/08/new_home_sales.html}}</ref> However, some counter that the bursting of the United States housing bubble was widely forecast before Kunstler began discussing it. <ref name="earlyBubble">{{Cite web|url=http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?story_id=2461875|title=America's phoney recovery|accessdate=2007-04-03|date=[[26 Feb]] [[2004]]|author=The Economist|format=html}}</ref>
Kunstler correctly predicted, however, that in [[2006]] the [[United States housing bubble]] would start to deflate, which appears to be borne out by latest data. <ref name="Hamilton downturn">"No question about it, the housing downturn is here now, and it's big." {{cite news | last=Hamilton | first=Jim | title=New home sales continue to fall | date=[[25 August]] [[2006]] | publisher=Econbrowser | url=http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2006/08/new_home_sales.html}}</ref> Still, some counter that the bursting of the United States housing bubble was widely forecast before Kunstler began discussing it. <ref name="earlyBubble">{{Cite web|url=http://www.economist.com/finance/displayStory.cfm?story_id=2461875|title=America's phoney recovery|accessdate=2007-04-03|date=[[26 Feb]] [[2004]]|author=The Economist|format=html}}</ref>


==References==
==References==

Revision as of 22:39, 11 December 2007

James Howard Kunstler (born 1948) is an American author, social critic, and blogger who is perhaps best known for his book The Geography of Nowhere, a history of suburbia and urban development in the United States. He is prominently featured in the peak oil documentary, The End of Suburbia, widely circulated on the internet. In his most recent book, The Long Emergency (2005), he argues that declining oil production will result in the end of industrialized society and force Americans to live in localized, agrarian communities.

Kunstler was born in New York City. Spending summers at a boys camp in New Hampshire, Kunstler became acquainted with the small town ethos that would later permeate many of his works. In 1966 he graduated from New York City's High School of Music & Art (now Fiorello H. LaGuardia High School of Music & Art and Performing Arts), and then attended the State University of New York at Brockport.

After college Kunstler worked as a reporter and feature writer for a number of newspapers, and finally as a staff writer for Rolling Stone. In 1975, he began writing books and lecturing full-time. He lives in Saratoga Springs, New York and was formerly married to the children's author Jennifer Armstrong.

Writing

Kunstler has been an outspoken critic of suburbia and urban development trends throughout the United States, and has been a leading proponent of the New Urbanism movement. He has summed up his attitude towards the current American landscape by describing it as follows:

The tragic landscape of highway strips, parking lots, housing tracts, mega-malls, junked cities, and ravaged countryside that makes up the everyday environment where most Americans live and work [is] … a land full of places that are not worth caring about [and] will soon be a nation and a way of life that is not worth defending.

— 8px, in James Kunstler, 8px

He has also written that:

…[the] physical arrangement of life in our nation, in particular suburban sprawl, [is] the most destructive development pattern the world has ever seen, and perhaps the greatest misallocation of resources the world has ever known.

— 8px, in James Kunstler, 8px

More recently, he has written about the effects that he predicts the coming oil peak will have on society in his 2005 book The Long Emergency: Surviving the End of the Oil Age, Climate Change, and Other Converging Catastrophes. He appears in the documentary film The End of Suburbia (2004).

In addition to his other books on urban planning, Home From Nowhere, and The City in Mind: Notes on the Urban Condition, Kunstler has also written several works of fiction, the most recent being Maggie Darling: A Modern Romance in 2004.

He also wrote in the days after 9/11 that "age of skyscrapers is at an end" in an op-ed on Planet Citizen.

Reactions and Criticisms

Kunstler's views have been described by some critics as "fashionably fear-mongering" and uninformed regarding the potential of renewable energy, biofuels, energy efficiency and smart-growth policies to eliminate the need for fossil fuels.[1] Kunstler has sought to address many of these criticisms in his own writing.

Other critics have attempted to indirectly impugn Kunstler's views through ad hominem attacks (for example, pointing out that he majored in Theater at college and has no formal training in the fields in which he operates) or by pointing out that he made similar predictions for Y2K as he makes for peak oil.[2][3] Kunstler responds to this criticism by saying that a Y2K catastrophe was averted by the hundreds of billions of dollars that were spent fixing the problem.[4]

In June 2005 and again in early 2006, Kunstler predicted that the Dow would crash to 4,000 by the end of the year.[5] [6] The Dow in fact reached a new peak by 2007. In his predictions for 2007, however, Kunstler admitted his mistake stating "Let's get this out of the way up front: the worst call I made last year was for the Dow to crumble down to 4000 when, in fact, it melted up to a new all-time record high of about 12,500. The reason we saw this, in my opinion, was that inertia combined with sheer luck to keep the finance sector decoupled from reality…".

Kunstler correctly predicted, however, that in 2006 the United States housing bubble would start to deflate, which appears to be borne out by latest data. [7] Still, some counter that the bursting of the United States housing bubble was widely forecast before Kunstler began discussing it. [8]

References

  1. ^ Charles Bensinger (2005). "Short Solutions to the Long Emergency" (html). The Green Institute. Retrieved 2007-08-18.
  2. ^ Kunstler, James (1999-04-01). "My Y2K—A Personal Statement". archive.org. Retrieved 2006-11-12.
  3. ^ Kunstler, Jim (1999). "My Y2K—A Personal Statement" (html). Kunstler, Jim. Retrieved 2006-12-12.
  4. ^ James Kunstler (2006). "The Twang Factor" (html). Retrieved 2006-12-22.
  5. ^ James Kunstler (2005). "Cluster Fuck Nation June 2005" (html). Retrieved 2007-02-20.
  6. ^ James Kunstler (2006). "Kunstler Predictions for 2006" (html). Retrieved 2007-07-07.
  7. ^ "No question about it, the housing downturn is here now, and it's big." Hamilton, Jim (25 August 2006). "New home sales continue to fall". Econbrowser. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  8. ^ The Economist (26 Feb 2004). "America's phoney recovery" (html). Retrieved 2007-04-03. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
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