2022 Texas's 34th congressional district special election: Difference between revisions

2022 Texas's 34th congressional district special election
Texas's 34th congressional district
Turnout	7.36%
	Results by county; Flores: 40–50% 50–60% 70–80% 80–90%; Sanchez: 50–60%
U.S. Representative before election; Filemon Vela Jr.; Democratic	Elected U.S. Representative ; Mayra Flores; Republican

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Latest revision as of 17:41, 29 August 2024

The 2022 Texas's 34th congressional district special election was held on June 14, 2022.^[2] The seat, which went to Democratic president Joe Biden by only four points in the 2020 United States presidential election after being solidly blue in the past, became vacant after Democratic incumbent representative Filemon Vela Jr. resigned on March 31, 2022, to work at the law firm Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld.^[3]

Republican candidate Mayra Flores won outright with 51% of the vote. Although Democrat Dan Sanchez was able to hold on to the Hidalgo County portion of the district by nine points, as well as flip Kenedy County after it went to Donald Trump in 2020, this was not enough to overcome Flores's gains in Cameron and Willacy Counties, resulting in them narrowly flipping red in this race after going to Biden by double digits in the 2020 contest. Flores was also able to shore up support in the district's northern rural counties, which typically voted Republican in the past. Flores became the first Republican to represent parts of the Rio Grande Valley since Blake Farenthold flipped the 27th district in 2010.

Candidates

Democratic Party

Declared

Rene Coronado, civil service director^[4]
Dan Sanchez, attorney and former Cameron County commissioner^[5]

Declined

Vicente Gonzalez, U.S. Representative for Texas's 15th congressional district and nominee for this district in the 2022 regular election^[6]^[7] (endorsed Sanchez)^[4]

Republican Party

Declared

Juana Cantu-Cabrera, former Palmhurst city Mayor Pro-Tem, former UTPA nursing professor, nurse practitioner, forensic nurse examiner, and candidate for this district in the 2022 regular election^[4]^[8]
Mayra Flores, respiratory care practitioner, Hidalgo County GOP Hispanic outreach chair, and nominee for this district in the 2022 regular election^[9]^[7]

Endorsements

Mayra Flores (R)

U.S. Representatives

Elise Stefanik, U.S. Representative from New York's 21st congressional district (2015–present) and Chair of the House Republican Conference (2021–present)^[10]

State officials

Greg Abbott, Governor of Texas (2015–present)^[4]
Matt Rinaldi, chair of the Republican Party of Texas (2021–present) and former state representative (2015–2019)^[4]

Organizations

Congressional Leadership Fund^[4]

Others

Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX and Tesla, Inc.^[4]
Peter Thiel, Venture capitalist^[4]

Dan Sanchez (D)

U.S. Representatives

Vicente Gonzalez, U.S. Representative from Texas's 15th congressional district (2017–present)^[4]
Filemon Vela Jr., former U.S. Representative from Texas's 34th congressional district (2013–2022)^[4]

Organizations

Congressional Hispanic Caucus BOLD PAC^[11]

Special election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[12]	Tossup	April 8, 2022
Inside Elections^[13]	Tossup	June 3, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[14]	Lean R (flip)	March 30, 2022

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Juana Cantu-Cabrera (R)	Rene Coronado (D)	Mayra Flores (R)	Dan Sanchez (D)	Undecided
RRH Elections (R)^[15]	June 8–11, 2022	484 (LV)	± 5.0%	3%	7%	43%	34%	13%
Ragnar Research Partners (R)^[16]^[A]	April 19–21, 2022	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	7%	9%	24%	19%	41%

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports
Candidate	Amount raised	Amount spent	Cash on hand
Mayra Flores (R)	$1,722,406	$1,608,423	$113,983
Daniel Sanchez (D)	$173,668	$173,668	$0
Source: OpenSecrets^[17]

Results

2022 Texas's 34th congressional district special election results^[1]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Mayra Flores	14,799	50.91
	Democratic	Dan Sanchez	12,606	43.37
	Democratic	Rene Coronado	1,210	4.16
	Republican	Juana Cantu-Cabrera	454	1.56
Total votes			29,069	100.00
Registered electors			395,025
	Republican gain from Democratic

By county

County	Mayra Flores Republican		Dan Sanchez Democratic		Rene Coronado Democratic		Juana Cantu-Cabrera Republican		Margin		Total votes	Turnout
County	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	Total votes	Turnout
Bee	992	74.6	282	21.2	33	2.5	23	1.7	710	53.4	1,330	8.47
Cameron	9,072	47.5	8,875	46.5	891	4.7	267	1.4	197	1.0	19,105	8.48
DeWitt	713	82.0	98	11.3	10	1.1	49	5.6	615	70.7	870	7.18
Goliad	395	79.6	76	15.3	14	2.8	11	2.2	319	64.3	496	8.63
Gonzales (part)	158	82.3	20	10.4	5	2.6	9	4.7	138	71.9	192	4.26
Hidalgo (part)	1,203	42.8	1,464	52.1	111	3.9	34	1.2	261	9.3	2,812	4.80
Jim Wells	651	51.3	571	45.0	34	2.7	14	1.1	80	6.3	1,270	4.80
Kenedy	13	43.3	15	50.0	0	0.0	2	6.7	2	6.7	30	9.71
Kleberg	864	57.0	567	37.4	65	4.3	20	1.3	297	19.6	1,516	8.21
San Patricio (part)	385	52.5	297	40.5	31	4.2	20	2.7	88	12.0	733	4.62
Willacy	353	49.4	341	47.7	16	2.2	5	0.7	12	1.7	715	6.05
Totals	14,799	50.9	12,606	43.4	1,210	4.2	454	1.6	2,193	7.5	29,069	7.36

Notes

^ Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

Partisan clients

^ Poll sponsored jointly by the National Republican Congressional Committee and Flores's campaign committee

References

^ ^a ^b "SPECIAL ELECTION CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT 34 - UNOFFICIAL RESULTS". Secretary of State of Texas. June 14, 2022. Retrieved June 16, 2022.
^ Svitek, Patrick (April 4, 2022). "Abbott calls June 14 special election for South Texas congressional seat that Republicans want to flip". The Texas Tribune. Archived from the original on April 5, 2022. Retrieved April 9, 2022.
^ Livingston, Abby (March 31, 2022). "U.S. Rep. Filemon Vela steps down, setting up a heated battle for his South Texas district". The Texas Tribune. Retrieved April 1, 2022.
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h ⁱ ^j Svitek, Patrick (April 13, 2022). "Two Democrats, two Republicans will compete in special election for South Texas congressional seat that GOP wants to flip". The Texas Tribune. Archived from the original on April 14, 2022. Retrieved April 15, 2022.
^ "Former South Texas judge announces run in special election for open congressional seat". KXAN-TV. April 6, 2022.
^ "NEW: Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, the Dem nominee in the 34th, tells me he will *not* run in this special election, even though he'll continue to run for Vela's open seat in the November election. (Gonzalez is running in the 34th after his current district, the 15th, was redistricted.)".
^ ^a ^b "U.S. Rep. Filemon Vela's resignation announcement sparks a sudden special-election scramble in hotly contested South Texas". March 24, 2022.
^ "Qualified Candidates Information". Texas Secretary of State.
^ Svitek, Patrick (March 24, 2022). "U.S. Rep. Filemon Vela's resignation announcement sparks a sudden special-election scramble in hotly contested South Texas". Texas Tribune. Retrieved March 24, 2022.
^ Schultz, Marisa (March 8, 2022). "Elise Stefanik unveils new endorsements for 2022 midterm elections". Fox News. Retrieved May 31, 2022.
^ "CHC BOLD PAC Announces New 2022 Endorsements". www.bolcpac.com. May 31, 2022. Retrieved June 4, 2022.
^ Wasserman, Dave (April 8, 2022). "TX-34 Special Election Gives GOP an Early South Texas Gift". Retrieved April 8, 2022.
^ "House Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved June 17, 2022.
^ Kondik, Kyle (March 30, 2022). "Notes on the State of Politics: March 30, 2022". Retrieved March 30, 2022.
^ RRH Elections (R)
^ Ragnar Research Partners (R)
^ "Texas District 34 2022 Special Election". OpenSecrets. Archived from the original on October 7, 2022. Retrieved October 7, 2022.

External links

Official campaign websites

[Key-15] Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[NRCCFlores-18] Poll sponsored jointly by the National Republican Congressional Committee and Flores's campaign committee

[txsos-1] "SPECIAL ELECTION CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT 34 - UNOFFICIAL RESULTS". Secretary of State of Texas. June 14, 2022. Retrieved June 16, 2022.

[2] Svitek, Patrick (April 4, 2022). "Abbott calls June 14 special election for South Texas congressional seat that Republicans want to flip". The Texas Tribune. Archived from the original on April 5, 2022. Retrieved April 9, 2022.

[3] Livingston, Abby (March 31, 2022). "U.S. Rep. Filemon Vela steps down, setting up a heated battle for his South Texas district". The Texas Tribune. Retrieved April 1, 2022.

[:0-4] ^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h ⁱ ^j Svitek, Patrick (April 13, 2022). "Two Democrats, two Republicans will compete in special election for South Texas congressional seat that GOP wants to flip". The Texas Tribune. Archived from the original on April 14, 2022. Retrieved April 15, 2022.

[5] "Former South Texas judge announces run in special election for open congressional seat". KXAN-TV. April 6, 2022.

[6] "NEW: Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, the Dem nominee in the 34th, tells me he will *not* run in this special election, even though he'll continue to run for Vela's open seat in the November election. (Gonzalez is running in the 34th after his current district, the 15th, was redistricted.)".

[mobilize-7] "U.S. Rep. Filemon Vela's resignation announcement sparks a sudden special-election scramble in hotly contested South Texas". March 24, 2022.

[8] "Qualified Candidates Information". Texas Secretary of State.

[9] Svitek, Patrick (March 24, 2022). "U.S. Rep. Filemon Vela's resignation announcement sparks a sudden special-election scramble in hotly contested South Texas". Texas Tribune. Retrieved March 24, 2022.

[10] Schultz, Marisa (March 8, 2022). "Elise Stefanik unveils new endorsements for 2022 midterm elections". Fox News. Retrieved May 31, 2022.

[11] "CHC BOLD PAC Announces New 2022 Endorsements". www.bolcpac.com. May 31, 2022. Retrieved June 4, 2022.

[12] Wasserman, Dave (April 8, 2022). "TX-34 Special Election Gives GOP an Early South Texas Gift". Retrieved April 8, 2022.

[IE-13] "House Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved June 17, 2022.

[Sabato's_Crystal_Ball-14] Kondik, Kyle (March 30, 2022). "Notes on the State of Politics: March 30, 2022". Retrieved March 30, 2022.

[16] RRH Elections (R)

[17] Ragnar Research Partners (R)

[19] "Texas District 34 2022 Special Election". OpenSecrets. Archived from the original on October 7, 2022. Retrieved October 7, 2022.

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@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
+{{Short description|none}} <!-- "none" is preferred when the title is already sufficiently detailed; see [[WP:SDNONE]] -->
-{{short description|Election following resignation of Filemon Vela Jr.}}
 {{use mdy dates|date=March 2022}}
 {{broader|Texas's 34th congressional district}}
@@ Line 25: / Line 25: @@
 | map_image = 2022 Texas's 34th congressional district special election results map by county.svg
 | map_size = x300px
-| map_caption = Results by county<br>'''Flores:''' {{legend0|#FFB2B2|40–50%}} {{legend0|#E27F7F|50–60%}} {{legend0|#D72F30|70–80%}} {{legend0|#C21B18|80–90%}}<br>'''Sanchez:''' {{legend0|#7996E2|50–60%}}
+| map_caption = Results by county<br />'''Flores:''' {{legend0|#FFB2B2|40–50%}} {{legend0|#E27F7F|50–60%}} {{legend0|#D72F30|70–80%}} {{legend0|#C21B18|80–90%}}<br />'''Sanchez:''' {{legend0|#7996E2|50–60%}}
 | title = U.S. Representative
 | before_election = [[Filemon Vela Jr.]]
@@ Line 42: / Line 42: @@
 ====Declared====
 *Rene Coronado, civil service director<ref name=":0">{{Cite news |last=Svitek |first=Patrick |date=April 13, 2022 |title=Two Democrats, two Republicans will compete in special election for South Texas congressional seat that GOP wants to flip |work=[[The Texas Tribune]] |url=https://www.texastribune.org/2022/04/13/south-texas-34-congressional-district-special-election/ |url-status=live |access-date=April 15, 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220414010743/https://www.texastribune.org/2022/04/13/south-texas-34-congressional-district-special-election/ |archive-date=April 14, 2022}}</ref>
-*Dan Sanchez, attorney and former [[Cameron County, Texas|Cameron County]] commissioner<ref>{{cite web| url=https://www.kxan.com/border-report/former-south-texas-judge-announces-run-in-special-election-for-open-congressional-seat/|title=Former South Texas judge announces run in special election for open congressional seat|website=[[KXAN-TV]]|date=April 6, 2022}} </ref>
+*Dan Sanchez, attorney and former [[Cameron County, Texas|Cameron County]] commissioner<ref>{{cite web| url=https://www.kxan.com/border-report/former-south-texas-judge-announces-run-in-special-election-for-open-congressional-seat/|title=Former South Texas judge announces run in special election for open congressional seat|website=[[KXAN-TV]]|date=April 6, 2022}}</ref>
 ====Declined====
@@ Line 57: / Line 57: @@
 |width=90em
 |list=
-;U.S. Representatives
+'''U.S. Representatives'''
 *[[Elise Stefanik]], U.S. Representative from {{ushr|NY|21}} (2015–present) and Chair of the [[House Republican Conference]] (2021–present)<ref>{{cite news |title=Elise Stefanik unveils new endorsements for 2022 midterm elections |date=March 8, 2022 |access-date=May 31, 2022 |first=Marisa |last=Schultz |work=[[Fox News]] |url=https://www.foxnews.com/politics/elise-stefanik-unveils-endorsements-2022-midterm-elections}}</ref>
-;State officials
+'''State officials'''
 *[[Greg Abbott]], [[Governor of Texas]] (2015–present)<ref name=":0" />
 *[[Matt Rinaldi]], chair of the [[Republican Party of Texas]] (2021–present) and former [[Texas House of Representatives|state representative]] (2015–2019)<ref name=":0" />
-;Organizations
+'''Organizations'''
 *[[Congressional Leadership Fund]]<ref name=":0" />
-;Others
+'''Others'''
 *[[Elon Musk]], CEO of [[SpaceX]] and [[Tesla, Inc.]]<ref name=":0" />
 *[[Peter Thiel]], Venture capitalist<ref name=":0" />
@@ Line 72: / Line 72: @@
 |width=90em
 |list=
-;U.S. Representatives
+'''U.S. Representatives'''
 *[[Vicente Gonzalez (politician)|Vicente Gonzalez]], U.S. Representative from {{ushr|TX|15}} (2017–present)<ref name=":0" />
 *[[Filemon Vela Jr.]], former U.S. Representative from {{ushr|TX|34}} (2013–2022)<ref name=":0" />
-;Organizations
+'''Organizations'''
 *[[Congressional Hispanic Caucus#CHC BOLD PAC|Congressional Hispanic Caucus BOLD PAC]]<ref>{{cite web |title=CHC BOLD PAC Announces New 2022 Endorsements |url=https://www.boldpac.com/chc-bold-pac-announces-new-2022-endorsements |website=www.bolcpac.com |access-date=4 June 2022 |date=31 May 2022}}</ref>
 }}
@@ Line 103: / Line 103: @@
 |- valign=bottom
 ! Poll source
-! Date(s)<br>administered
+! Date(s)<br />administered
-! Sample<br>size{{efn|Key:<br>A – all adults<br>RV – registered voters<br>LV – likely voters<br>V – unclear|name="Key"}}
+! Sample<br />size{{efn|Key:<br />A – all adults<br />RV – registered voters<br />LV – likely voters<br />V – unclear|name="Key"}}
-! Margin<br>of error
+! Margin<br />of error
-! style="width:60px;"| Juana<br>{{nowrap|Cantu-Cabrera}}<br>(R)
+! style="width:60px;"| Juana<br />{{nowrap|Cantu-Cabrera}}<br />(R)
-! style="width:60px;"| Rene<br>Coronado<br>(D)
+! style="width:60px;"| Rene<br />Coronado<br />(D)
-! style="width:60px;"| Mayra<br>Flores<br>(R)
+! style="width:60px;"| Mayra<br />Flores<br />(R)
-! style="width:60px;"| Dan<br>Sanchez<br>(D)
+! style="width:60px;"| Dan<br />Sanchez<br />(D)
 ! Undecided
 |-
-|style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.dropbox.com/s/5u8kf9ryfiwrb7i/RRH%20Elections%20TX-34%20Poll%20Release.pdf RRH Elections (R)]
+|style="text-align:left;"|[[RRH Elections]] (R)<ref>[https://www.dropbox.com/s/5u8kf9ryfiwrb7i/RRH%20Elections%20TX-34%20Poll%20Release.pdf RRH Elections (R)]</ref>
 |June 8–11, 2022
 |484 (LV)
@@ Line 122: / Line 122: @@
 |13%
 |-
-|style="text-align:left;"|[https://www.nrcc.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/TX-CD-34_Memo.pdf Ragnar Research Partners (R)]{{efn-ua|Poll sponsored jointly by the [[National Republican Congressional Committee]] and Flores's campaign committee|name=NRCCFlores}}
+|style="text-align:left;"|[[Ragnar Research Partners]] (R)<ref>[https://www.nrcc.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/TX-CD-34_Memo.pdf Ragnar Research Partners (R)]</ref>{{efn-ua|Poll sponsored jointly by the [[National Republican Congressional Committee]] and Flores's campaign committee|name=NRCCFlores}}
 |April 19–21, 2022
 |400 (LV)
@@ Line 198: / Line 198: @@
 {| class="wikitable sortable" style="text-align:right;font-size:90%;line-height:1.3"
 ! rowspan="2" |County
-! colspan="2" |[[Mayra Flores]]<br>[[Republican Party (United States)|Republican]]
+! colspan="2" |[[Mayra Flores]]<br />[[Republican Party (United States)|Republican]]
-! colspan="2" |Dan Sanchez<br>[[Democratic Party (United States)|Democratic]]
+! colspan="2" |Dan Sanchez<br />[[Democratic Party (United States)|Democratic]]
-! colspan="2" |Rene Coronado<br>[[Democratic Party (United States)|Democratic]]
+! colspan="2" |Rene Coronado<br />[[Democratic Party (United States)|Democratic]]
-! colspan="2" |Juana Cantu-Cabrera<br>[[Republican Party (United States)|Republican]]
+! colspan="2" |Juana Cantu-Cabrera<br />[[Republican Party (United States)|Republican]]
 ! colspan="2" |Margin
-! rowspan="2" |Total<br>votes
+! rowspan="2" |Total<br />votes
 ! rowspan="2" |Turnout
 |-
@@ Line 395: / Line 395: @@
 ==Notes==
 {{notelist}}
-;Partisan clients
+'''Partisan clients'''<br />
 {{notelist-ua}}
@@ Line 402: / Line 402: @@
 ==External links==
-;Official campaign websites
+'''Official campaign websites'''
 *[https://www.juanacantu-cabreraforcongress.com/ Juana Cantu-Cabrera (R) for Congress]
 *[https://www.mayrafloresforcongress.com/ Mayra Flores (R) for Congress]

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Other	ballot measures

Latest revision as of 17:41, 29 August 2024

Candidates

Democratic Party

Declared

Declined

Republican Party

Declared

Endorsements

Special election

Predictions

Polling

Fundraising

Results

See also

Notes

References

External links