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2016 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary

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The 2016 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary, which took place on February 9, was the second major vote of the cycle. Donald Trump was declared the winner with 35.2% of the popular vote and picked up 11 delegates, while John Kasich emerged from a pack of candidates between 10 and 20% to capture second place with 15.8% of the vote and picked up four delegates.[1]

2016 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary
← 2012 February 9, 2016 (2016-02-09) 2020 →
← IA
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23 pledged delegates to the 2016 Republican National Convention
 
Candidate Donald Trump John Kasich Ted Cruz
Home state New York Ohio Texas
Delegate count 11 4 3
Popular vote 100,735 44,932 33,244
Percentage 35.23% 15.72% 11.63%
 
Candidate Jeb Bush Marco Rubio Chris Christie
Home state Florida Florida New Jersey
Delegate count 3 2 0
Popular vote 31,341 30,071 21,089
Percentage 10.96% 10.52% 7.38%

It occurred on the same day as the Democratic primary.

Chris Christie,[2] Carly Fiorina,[3] and Jim Gilmore dropped out of the race after poor showings in the primary.

Campaign

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Politico described the 2016 Republican primary in New Hampshire as a "topsy-turvy" campaign that saw "an all-out assault" on "establishment" politics.[4]

Donald Trump dominated the polling results,[5] with Chris Christie, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, and Jeb Bush vying to place second and emerge as the leading mainstream alternative to Trump and to Ted Cruz.[6] In November Chris Christie gained the endorsement of the New Hampshire Union Leader.[7] Candidates receiving the endorsement later received a boost of on average 8 points in the polls, but the endorsed candidate only won a Republican primary in half of the elections from 1980 to 2012.[8] But in late January The Boston Globe and the Concord Monitor endorsed Kasich, leading Politico to dub him the winner of the "newspaper primary."[4]

Major debates and forums

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Two major televised gatherings of major candidates took place during the 2015-16 campaign, both took place at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics of Saint Anselm College in Goffstown, New Hampshire.

August 3, 2015 – Voters First Presidential Forum

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The 2016 Voters First Presidential Forum was moderated by Jack Heath of WGIR radio, who asked questions of each of the participating candidates based on a random draw.[9] Candidates each had three opportunities to speak: two rounds of questions, and a closing statement.[10] Topics of discussion during the forum were partially selected based on the results of an online voter survey.[11] The facilities were provided by the New Hampshire Institute of Politics and Political Library of St. Anselm College. The forum was organized in response[12] to the top-ten invitation limitations placed by Fox News and CNN on their first televised debates (see descriptions below).

Eleven of the candidates participated: Senators Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Marco Rubio participated in the forum via satellite to avoid missing a vote.[13] Three major Republican candidates who did not participate were Donald Trump (who chose not to attend),[9] Jim Gilmore (who missed the cutoff deadline)[9] and Mike Huckabee (who was invited, but did not respond).[9] Mark Everson did not receive an invitation, albeit after a "serious look."[14][15]

The Voters First forum was broadcast nationally[16] by C-SPAN[17] as the originating source media entity, beginning at 6:30 p.m. EDT and lasting[citation needed] from 7 to 9 p.m. The event was also simulcast and/or co-sponsored by television stations KCRG-TV in Iowa, New England Cable News in the northeast, WBIN-TV in New Hampshire,[18] WLTX-TV in South Carolina, radio stations New Hampshire Public Radio, WGIR in New Hampshire, iHeartRadio on the internet (C-SPAN is also offering an online version of the broadcast), and newspapers the Cedar Rapids Gazette in Iowa, the Union Leader in New Hampshire, and the Post and Courier in Charleston South Carolina.[9] There was a live audience, with tickets to the event awarded via a lottery.[12]

Lesser known candidates forum at Goffstown

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One of the highlights of the campaign is when the nonrecognized candidates gather together to introduce themselves to the public at this event, which first was held in 1972.[19] Five candidates participated. They were Stephen Comley, Tim Cook, Walter Iwachiw, Andy Martin, and Joe Robinson.

February 6, 2016 – Goffstown, New Hampshire

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Candidate Airtime[20] Polls[21]
Trump 15:32 33.2%
Cruz 17:34 20.7%
Rubio 18:14 13.3%
Carson 8:46 7.8%
Bush 12:30 4.5%
Christie 12:53 3.0%
Kasich 10:33 2.8%

The eighth debate was held in New Hampshire, the first state to hold primaries, was organized by ABC News and the Independent Journal Review. It was scheduled to be held in the St Anselm's College Institute of Politics.[22] The eighth debate did not feature an undercard event.[23] David Muir and Martha Raddatz were moderaters, along with WMUR political director Josh McElveen and Mary Katherine Ham.[24]

To participate in the debate, a candidate must either have placed among the top 3 candidates in the popular vote of the Iowa caucus, or placed among the top 6 candidates in an average of New Hampshire or national polls recognized by ABC News. Only polls conducted no earlier than January 1 and released by February 4 were included in the averages.[25]

On February 4, 2016, Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, and Donald Trump were invited to the debate.[26] Carly Fiorina and Jim Gilmore were not invited as they did not meet the criteria.[27]

The debate was notable for Rubio's poor performance, where he repeated the same phrase four times, including once while Christie was criticizing him for making "canned" remarks.[28][29]

Candidates

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Twenty-six total candidates were on the ballot in the New Hampshire primary.[30] The following notable candidates were listed in five major polls and participated in authorized debates. U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and former Governors Bobby Jindal of Louisiana and George Pataki of New York withdrew from the race, but remained on the ballot.

The following were listed in national polls and participated in at least one nationally televised debate.

Candidate Résumé Portrait popular vote percentage Delegates won
Donald Trump CEO of The Trump Organization (campaign)   100,406 [1] 35.3%[1] 11
John Kasich Governor of Ohio since 2011; U.S. Representative from Ohio 1983–2001; presidential candidate in 2000 (campaign)[31][32]   44,909[1] 15.8%[1] 4
Ted Cruz U.S. Senator from Texas since 2013; Solicitor General of Texas 2003–2008 (campaign)[33]   33,189[1] 11.7%[1] 3
Jeb Bush Governor of Florida 1999–2007; Florida Secretary of Commerce 1987–1988 (campaign)[34][35]   31,310[1] 11%[1] 3
Marco Rubio U.S. Senator from Florida since 2011; Florida Speaker of the House 2007–2008 (campaign)[36][37][38]   30,032[1] 10.6%[1] 2
Chris Christie Governor of New Jersey since 2010, U.S. Attorney from the district of New Jersey (campaign)[39][40]   21,069[1] 7.4%[1] none
Carly Fiorina Former Hewlett-Packard CEO 1999–2005; nominee for Senate in California in 2010 (campaign)[41][42]   11,706[1] 4.1%[1] none
Ben Carson Author and former Director of Pediatric Neurosurgery at the Johns Hopkins Hospital 1984–2013 (campaign)[43][44][45]   6,509[1] 2.3%[1] none
Jim Gilmore Presidential candidate in 2008, Governor of Virginia 1998–2002 (campaign)[46][47]   133[48] 0.05%[48] none

The following were listed in national polls and participated in at least one nationally televised debate, but withdrew their candidacies before the New Hampshire primary.

Candidate Résumé Portrait popular vote percentage Delegates won
Lindsey Graham U.S. Senator from South Carolina since 2003; U.S. Representative from South Carolina 1995–2003 (campaign)[49][50]   70[48] 0% none (withdrew from the race earlier)
Mike Huckabee Governor of Arkansas 1996–2007; presidential candidate in 2008 (campaign)[51][52]   215[48] 0% none (withdrew from race after Iowa caucuses)
Bobby Jindal Governor of Louisiana since 2008; U.S. Representative from Louisiana 2005–2008 (campaign)[53][54]   64[48] 0% none (withdrew from race earlier)
George Pataki Governor of New York 1995–2006 (campaign)[55][56]   80[48] 0% none (withdrew from race earlier)
Rand Paul U.S. Senator from Kentucky since 2011 and Ophthalmologist (campaign)[57][58][59]   1,900[48] 0.67% none (withdrew from race after Iowa caucuses)[60]
Rick Santorum U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania 1995–2007; U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania 1991–1995; presidential candidate in 2012 (campaign)[61][62]   155[48] 0% none (withdrew from race after Iowa caucuses)

The following candidates have not been listed in major independent polls nor participated in Republican party sanctioned debates:

  • Stephen B. Comley Sr., Massachusetts (31 votes)
  • Tim Cook, North Carolina (77 votes)
  • Brooks A. Cullison, Illinois (54 votes)
  • Matt Drozd, Pennsylvania (5 votes)
  • J. Daniel Dyas Sr., Alabama (14 votes)
  • Kevin Glenn Huey, Colorado (7 votes)
  • Walter N. Iwachiw, New York (9 votes)
  • Frank Lynch, Florida (47 votes)
  • Robert L. Mann, Indiana (5 votes)
  • Andy Martin, New Hampshire (169 votes)
  • Peter Messina (5 votes)
  • Stephen John McCarthy, Ohio (12 votes)
  • Chomi Prag, Wisconsin (14 votes)
  • Joe Robinson, Massachusetts (44 votes)
  • Richard P.H. Witz, Massachusetts (105 votes)[48]

Endorsements

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Jeb Bush
U.S. Senators
State Senators
Newspapers
Chris Christie
U.S. Representatives
State Senators
Individuals
Ted Cruz
U.S. Senators
Executive Council
State Senators
Carly Fiorina
State Senators
Individuals
John Kasich
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State Senators
Newspapers
Marco Rubio
Governor
State Senators

Withdrawn candidates

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Jim Gilmore (Withdrawn)
State Senators
George Pataki (Withdrawn)
State Senators
Rand Paul (Withdrawn)
State Senators

Polling

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Main article: Opinion polling for the 2016 Republican Party presidential primary in New Hampshire

Aggregate polls

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Source of poll

aggregation

Dates

administered

Dates

updated

Marco Rubio
Republican 		Donald Trump
Republican 		Ted Cruz
Republican 		John Kasich
Republican 		Margin
RealClearPolitics until February 9, 2016 February 9, 2016 14.0% 31.2% 11.8% 13.5% Trump +17.2
FiveThirtyEight until February 9, 2016 February 9, 2016 15.7% 26.8% 12.0% 15.2% Trump +11.0
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Primary results February 9, 2016 Donald Trump35.23% John Kasich15.72% Ted Cruz11.63% Jeb Bush 10.96%, Marco Rubio 10.52%, Chris Christie 7.38%, Carly Fiorina 4.12%, Ben Carson 2.28%, Rand Paul 0.68%, Mike Huckabee 0.08%, Rick Santorum 0.06%, Jim Gilmore 0.05%
ARG[92]

Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 418

February 7–8, 2016 Donald Trump
33% 		John Kasich

17%

Marco Rubio

14%

Ted Cruz 10%, Jeb Bush 9%, Chris Christie 8%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Ben Carson 1%, Undecided 6%
CNN/UNH/WMUR[93]

Margin of error: ± 5.2% Sample size: 362

February 4–8, 2016 Donald Trump
31% 		Marco Rubio

17%

Ted Cruz

14%

John Kasich 10%, Jeb Bush 7%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Chris Christie 4%, Ben Carson 3%, Undecided 7%
Gravis Marketing/

One America News[94]

Margin of error: ± 3.7% Sample size: 705

February 7, 2016 Donald Trump
28% 		John Kasich

17%

Marco Rubio

15%

Jeb Bush 14%, Ted Cruz 11%, Chris Christie 6%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Ben Carson 3%, Rand Paul 1%, Rick Santorum 0.5%
ARG[95]

Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 427

February 6–7, 2016 Donald Trump
30% 		John Kasich

16%

Marco Rubio

16%

Ted Cruz 10%, Jeb Bush 9%, Chris Christie 6%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Ben Carson 1%, Undecided 9%
UMass Lowell/7 News[96]

Margin of error: ± 5.13% Sample size: 464

February 5–7, 2016 Donald Trump
34% 		Marco Rubio

13%

Ted Cruz

13%

Jeb Bush 10%, John Kasich 10%, Chris Christie 5%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Ben Carson 3%, Undecided 9%
Emerson College[97]

Margin of error: ± 3.7% Sample size: 686

February 4–7, 2016 Donald Trump
31% 		Jeb Bush

16%

John Kasich

13%

Marco Rubio 12%, Ted Cruz 11%, Carly Fiorina 7%, Chris Christie 6%, Ben Carson 3%,
ARG[95]

Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 422

February 5–6, 2016 Donald Trump
31% 		John Kasich

17%

Marco Rubio

17%

Ted Cruz 9%, Jeb Bush 9%, Chris Christie 5%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Ben Carson 1%, Undecided 8%
Monmouth University[98]

Margin of error: ± 4.4% Sample size: 508

February 4–6, 2016 Donald Trump
30% 		John Kasich

14%

Marco Rubio

13%

Jeb Bush 13%, Ted Cruz 12%, Chris Christie 6%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Ben Carson 4%, Other 1%, Undecided 3%
UMass Lowell/7 News[99]

Margin of error: ± 4.82% Sample size: 516

February 4–6, 2016 Donald Trump
36% 		Marco Rubio

14%

Ted Cruz

13%

Jeb Bush 10%, John Kasich 9%, Chris Christie 4%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Ben Carson 3%, Undecided 7%
CNN/UNH/WMUR[100]

Margin of error: ± 5.2% Sample size: 362

February 3–6, 2016 Donald Trump
33% 		Marco Rubio

16%

Ted Cruz

14%

John Kasich 11%, Jeb Bush 7%, Carly Fiorina 6%, Chris Christie 4%, Ben Carson 2%, Someone Else 1%, Not Sure 6%
Franklin Pierce University/

RKM/Boston Herald[101]

Margin of error: ± 4.7% Sample size: 433

February 2–6, 2016 Donald Trump
31% 		Ted Cruz

16%

Marco Rubio

15%

John Kasich 11%, Jeb Bush 10%, Chris Christie 5%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Ben Carson 3%, Other 2%, Unsure 3%
ARG[102]

Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 415

February 4–5, 2016 Donald Trump
34% 		John Kasich

17%

Marco Rubio

16%

Ted Cruz 9%, Jeb Bush 8%, Chris Christie 5%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Ben Carson 2%, Undecided 6%
UMass Lowell/7 News[103]

Margin of error: ± 4.86% Sample size: 501

February 3–5, 2016 Donald Trump
35% 		Marco Rubio

14%

Ted Cruz

13%

John Kasich 10%, Jeb Bush 10%, Chris Christie 4%, Ben Carson 3%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Undecided 9%
Suffolk University/

Boston Globe[104]

Margin of error: ± 4.4% Sample size: 500

February 3–4, 2016 Donald Trump
28.8% 		Marco Rubio

19.4%

John Kasich

13%

Jeb Bush 9.8%, Ted Cruz 6.6%, Chris Christie 5.2%, Ben Carson 4.4%, Carly Fiorina 3.8%, Other 1%, Undecided 8%
ARG[105]

Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 420

February 3–4, 2016 Donald Trump
36% 		Marco Rubio

15%

John Kasich

14%

Ted Cruz 12%, Jeb Bush 8%, Chris Christie 6%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Ben Carson 2%, Undecided 6%
MassINC/WBUR[106]

Margin of error: ± 4.9% Sample size: 410

February 2–4, 2016 Donald Trump
29% 		Marco Rubio

12%

Ted Cruz

12%

Jeb Bush 9%, John Kasich 9%, Carly Fiorina 8%, Chris Christie 6%, Ben Carson 4%, Jim Gilmore <1% Other <1%, Won't Vote 1%, Don't Know 5%
UMass Lowell/7 News[107]

Margin of error: ± 4.8% Sample size: 500

February 2–4, 2016 Donald Trump
34% 		Marco Rubio

15%

Ted Cruz

14%

Jeb Bush 8%, John Kasich 8%, Chris Christie 5%, Ben Carson 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Other 2%, Undecided 6%
CNN/UNH/WMUR[108]

Margin of error: ± 6.8% Sample size: 209

February 2–4, 2016 Donald Trump
29% 		Marco Rubio

18%

Ted Cruz

13%

John Kasich 12%, Jeb Bush 10%, Chris Christie 4%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Ben Carson 2%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Someone Else 2%, Not Sure 8%
NBC News/WSJ/Marist[109]

Margin of error: ± 3.8% Sample size: 653

February 2–3, 2016 Donald Trump
30% 		Marco Rubio

17%

Ted Cruz

15%

John Kasich 10%, Jeb Bush 9%, Chris Christie 4%, Ben Carson 4%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Other 1%, Undecided 7%
ARG[110]

Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 600

February 2–3, 2016 Donald Trump
34% 		Marco Rubio

14%

John Kasich

13%

Ted Cruz 12%, Jeb Bush 8%, Chris Christie 4%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Ben Carson 2%, Undecided 8%
UMass Lowell/7 News[111]

Margin of error: ± 4.87% Sample size: 487

February 1–3, 2016 Donald Trump
36% 		Marco Rubio

15%

Ted Cruz

14%

Jeb Bush 8%, John Kasich 7%, Chris Christie 5%, Ben Carson 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Other 8%
Harper Polling[112]

Margin of error: ± 4.75% Sample size: 425

February 1–2, 2016 Donald Trump
31% 		Jeb Bush

14%

John Kasich

12%

Marco Rubio 10%, Ted Cruz 9%, Chris Christie 6%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Ben Carson 3%, Rand Paul 3%, Rick Santorum 0%, Mike Huckabee 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Undecided 8%
UMass Lowell/7 News[113]

Margin of error: ± 4.8% Sample size: 502

January 31–

February 2, 2016

Donald Trump
38% 		Ted Cruz

14%

Marco Rubio

12%

Jeb Bush 9%, John Kasich 7%, Chris Christie 6%, Ben Carson 3%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Rand Paul 2%, Rick Santorum 0%, Other 2%, Unsure 4%
UMass Amherst/

WBZ-TV/YouGov[114]

Margin of error: ± 7.1% Sample size: 390

January 29–

February 2, 2016

Donald Trump
35% 		Marco Rubio

15%

John Kasich

11%

Ted Cruz 9%, Jeb Bush 8%, Chris Christie 5%, Ben Carson 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Other 8%, Unsure 3%
ARG[115]

Margin of error: ± 4.0% Sample size: 600

January 29–31, 2016 Donald Trump
34% 		John Kasich

16%

Marco Rubio

11%

Ted Cruz 10%, Jeb Bush 9%, Chris Christie 6%, Rand Paul 2%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Ben Carson 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Mike Huckabee 0%, Undecided 6%
UMass Lowell/7 News[116]

Margin of error: ± 5.1% Sample size: 461

January 29–31, 2016 Donald Trump
38% 		Ted Cruz

12%

John Kasich

9%

Jeb Bush 9%, Marco Rubio 8%, Chris Christie 7%, Rand Paul 3%, Ben Carson 3%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Mike Huckabee 0%, Other 2%, Not Sure 5%
CNN/UNH/WMUR[117]

Margin of error: ± 4.8% Sample size: 409

January 27–30, 2016 Donald Trump
30% 		Ted Cruz

12%

Marco Rubio

11%

John Kasich 9%, Chris Christie 8%, Jeb Bush 6%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Rand Paul 3%, Ben Carson 3%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Rick Santorum 0%, Other 3%, Not Sure 10%
Franklin Pierce/RKM/

Boston Herald[118]

Margin of error: ± 4.7% Sample size: 439

January 26–30, 2016 Donald Trump
38% 		Ted Cruz

13%

Jeb Bush

10%

Marco Rubio 10%, John Kasich 8%, Chris Christie 5%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Rand Paul 5%, Ben Carson 3%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, Other 2%, Unsure 2%
Suffolk University[119]

Margin of error: ± 4.4% Sample size: 500

January 25–27, 2016 Donald Trump
26.6% 		John Kasich

12%

Ted Cruz

11.8%

Jeb Bush 11.2%, Marco Rubio 9.6%, Chris Christie 5.6%, Ben Carson 4.8%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Rand Paul 1.6%, Mike Huckabee 0.4%, Jim Gilmore 0.2%, Rick Santorum 0%, Other 0.4%, Undecided 11.8%
Adrian Gray

Consulting[120]

Margin of error: ± 4% Sample size: 583

January 25–27, 2016 Donald Trump
27% 		Marco Rubio

15%

Ted Cruz

13%

John Kasich 12%, Jeb Bush 11%, Chris Christie 6%, Rand Paul 4%, Ben Carson 3%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, Don't know 5%
Emerson College[121]

Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 373

January 25–26, 2016 Donald Trump
35% 		Jeb Bush

18%

John Kasich

14%

Marco Rubio 9%, Ted Cruz 8%, Chris Christie 5%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Ben Carson 3%, Rand Paul 3%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Other 0%, Undecided 1%
ARG[122]

Margin of error: ± 4.0% Sample size: 600

January 23–25, 2016 Donald Trump
31% 		John Kasich

17%

Ted Cruz

12%

Marco Rubio 9%, Chris Christie 8%, Jeb Bush 8%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Rand Paul 2%, Ben Carson 2%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Other 1%, Undecided 6%
Franklin Pierce/RKM/Boston Herald[123]

Margin of error: ± 4.7% Sample size: 444

January 20–24, 2016 Donald Trump
33% 		Ted Cruz

14%

John Kasich

12%

Jeb Bush 9%, Marco Rubio 8%, Chris Christie 7%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Ben Carson 4%, Rand Paul 3%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, Other 1%, Unsure 3%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[124]

Margin of error: ± 4.0% Sample size: 612

January 17–23, 2016 Donald Trump
31% 		Ted Cruz

12%

Marco Rubio/

John Kasich 11%

Jeb Bush 8%, Chris Christie 7%, Ben Carson 5%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Rand Paul 4%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Other 1%, Undecided 5%
Fox News[125]

Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 401

January 19–21, 2016 Donald Trump
31% 		Ted Cruz

14%

Marco Rubio

13%

John Kasich 9%, Chris Christie 7%, Jeb Bush 7%, Rand Paul 5%, Ben Carson 5%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Mike Huckabee 1%, None of the above 1%, Don't know 5%
CBS/YouGov[126]

Margin of error: ± 6.2% Sample size: 476

January 19–21, 2016 Donald Trump
34% 		Ted Cruz

16%

Marco Rubio

14%

John Kasich 10%, Chris Christie 7%, Jeb Bush 7%, Ben Carson 5%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Rand Paul 3%, Mike Huckabee 0%, Rick Santorum 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, No Preference 0%
ARG[122]

Margin of error: ± 4.0% Sample size: 600

January 15–18, 2016 Donald Trump
27% 		John Kasich

20%

Marco Rubio

10%

Ted Cruz 9%, Chris Christie 9%, Jeb Bush 8%, Rand Paul 5%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Ben Carson 2%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Other 1%, Undecided 7%
CNN/UNH/WMUR[127]

Margin of error: ± 4.8% Sample size: 414

January 13–18, 2016 Donald Trump
34% 		Ted Cruz

14%

Marco Rubio

10%

Jeb Bush 10%, Rand Paul 6%, Chris Christie 6%, John Kasich 6%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Ben Carson 3%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, Don't know 6%
Mason-Dixon/AARP[128]

Margin of error: ± 4.5% Sample size: 503

January 12–16, 2016 Donald Trump
32% 		Marco Rubio

14%

John Kasich

13%

Chris Christie 10%, Jeb Bush 9%, Ted Cruz 8%, Carly Fiorina 6%, Ben Carson 2%, Rand Paul 2%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, Undecided 4%
ARG[129]

Margin of error: ± 4.0% Sample size: 600

January 7–10, 2016 Donald Trump
25% 		Marco Rubio/

John Kasich 14%

Chris Christie

10%

Ted Cruz 9%, Jeb Bush 8%, Rand Paul 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Ben Carson 2%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Other 0%, Undecided 8%
Monmouth University[130]

Margin of error: ± 4.8% Sample size: 414

January 7–10, 2016 Donald Trump
32% 		John Kasich/

Ted Cruz 14%

Marco Rubio

12%

Chris Christie 8%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Jeb Bush 4%, Rand Paul 4%, Ben Carson 3%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, Other 0%, Undecided 3%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[131]

Margin of error: ± 4.1% Sample size: 569

January 2–7, 2016 Donald Trump
30% 		Marco Rubio

14%

Chris Christie

12%

Ted Cruz 10%, John Kasich 9%, Jeb Bush 9%, Rand Paul 5%, Ben Carson 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Mike Huckabee <1%, Other <1%, Undecided 5%
NH1/Reach[132]

Margin of error: ± 3.1% Sample size: 1000

January 7, 2016 Donald Trump
31.7% 		Jeb Bush

11.9%

John Kasich 11.8% Chris Christie 11.0%, Ted Cruz 9.7%, Marco Rubio 8.9%, Carly Fiorina 4.6%, Ben Carson 3.8%, Rand Paul 3.0%, Rick Santorum 2.6%, Mike Huckabee 1.0%
Fox News[133]

Margin of error: ± 3.5% Sample size: 414

January 4–7, 2016 Donald Trump
33% 		Marco Rubio

15%

Ted Cruz 12% Jeb Bush 9%, John Kasich 7%, Rand Paul 5%, Chris Christie 5%, Ben Carson 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Mike Huckabee 0%, Rick Santorum 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Undecided 4%
Public Policy Polling[134]

Margin of error: ± 4.3% Sample size: 515

January 4–6, 2016 Donald Trump
29% 		Marco Rubio

15%

Chris Christie/

John Kasich 11%

Ted Cruz 10%, Jeb Bush 10%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Ben Carson 4%, Rand Paul 3%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Undecided 2%

Results

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New Hampshire Republican primary, February 9, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 100,735 35.23% 11 0 11
John Kasich 44,932 15.72% 4 0 4
Ted Cruz 33,244 11.63% 3 0 3
Jeb Bush 31,341 10.96% 3 0 3
Marco Rubio 30,071 10.52% 2 0 2
Chris Christie 21,089 7.38% 0 0 0
Carly Fiorina 11,774 4.12% 0 0 0
Ben Carson 6,527 2.28% 0 0 0
Rand Paul (withdrawn) 1,930 0.68% 0 0 0
Write-ins 2,912 1.02% 0 0 0
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn) 216 0.08% 0 0 0
Andy Martin 202 0.07% 0 0 0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn) 160 0.06% 0 0 0
Jim Gilmore 134 0.05% 0 0 0
Richard Witz 104 0.04% 0 0 0
George Pataki (withdrawn) 79 0.03% 0 0 0
Lindsey Graham (withdrawn) 73 0.03% 0 0 0
Brooks Andrews Cullison 56 0.02% 0 0 0
Timothy Cook 55 0.02% 0 0 0
Bobby Jindal (withdrawn) 53 0.02% 0 0 0
Frank Lynch 47 0.02% 0 0 0
Joe Robinson 44 0.02% 0 0 0
Stephen Bradley Comley 32 0.01% 0 0 0
Chomi Prag 16 0.01% 0 0 0
Jacob Daniel Dyas 15 0.01% 0 0 0
Stephen John McCarthy 12 0% 0 0 0
Walter Iwachiw 9 0% 0 0 0
Kevin Glenn Huey 8 0% 0 0 0
Matt Drozd 6 0% 0 0 0
Robert Lawrence Mann 5 0% 0 0 0
Peter Messina 5 0% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 285,916 100.00% 23 0 23
Source: The Green Papers

Note: Delegates were awarded to candidates who got 10% or more of the vote proportionally. Of the 25 candidate/hopefuls, five candidates garnered delegates.

Results by county

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County Trump Kasich Cruz
Belknap 35.16% 15.73% 12.89%
Carroll 33.95% 18.55% 11.05%
Cheshire 33.42% 16.05% 13.92%
Coos 36.99% 15.97% 10.18%
Grafton 29.36% 20.83% 10.35%
Hillsborough 34.89% 14.89% 11.43%
Merrimack 33.02% 18.61% 11.39%
Rockingham 38.73% 13.98% 10.78%
Strafford 33.40% 14.50% 15.09%
Sullivan 36.73% 15.91% 11.34%
TOTAL 35.23% 15.71% 11.63%
Source: uselectionatlas.org

Exit polls

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2016 New Hampshire Republican Primary by demographic subgroup (Edison exit polling)[135]
Demographic subgroup Cruz Trump Rubio Kasich Bush % of

total vote

Total vote 11.6 35.2 10.5 15.7 11.0 90%
Gender
Men 12 38 9 16 8 52%
Women 11 33 12 16 14 48%
Age
17–29 years old 17 38 12 11 10 15%
30–44 years old 12 36 18 12 7 17%
45–64 years old 11 36 8 18 11 49%
65+ years old 9 31 11 19 15 19%
Income
Under $30,000 14 39 9 7 16 10%
$30,000 - $49,999 12 40 9 13 9 16%
$50,000 - $99,999 12 37 10 16 11 33%
$100,000 - $199,999 10 32 13 19 11 31%
Over $200,000 9 32 12 20 13 10%
Education
College Graduate 11 30 12 19 12 53%
Non-college 13 42 10 12 9 47%
Issue regarded as most important
Immigration 21 44 8 5 6 15%
Economy 6 30 12 24 12 33%
Terrorism 12 28 13 15 14 24%
Government spending 13 28 8 15 10 26%
Area type
Urban 12 37 9 13 12 10%
Suburban 11 37 11 14 11 54%
Rural 12 33 11 19 11 37%
Religion
Evangelical 24 28 13 11 11 23%
Non-Evangelical 8 38 10 18 11 77%
Gun household
Yes 12 40 8 13 10 57%
No 9 28 15 21 13 43%

Analysis

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According to exit polls by Edison Research, Trump's landslide in New Hampshire could be attributed to strong support from non-college whites and voters holding a moderate political ideology.[135] Trump amassed the largest margin of victory in a New Hampshire Republican primary since 2000, when John McCain upset George W. Bush. In his victory speech, Trump promised, "I am going to be the greatest jobs president that God ever created," and that he will "knock the hell out of ISIS."[136] Trump's tough-on-terror message resonated in the state, where 65% of Republican voters supported his proposed Muslim ban.[135]

See also

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References

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