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2016 United States presidential election

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The United States presidential election of 2016 is scheduled for Tuesday, November 8, 2016. It will be the 58th quadrennial U.S. presidential election. Voters will select presidential electors who in turn will elect a new president and vice president. The incumbent president, Barack Obama, is ineligible for a third term because of the Twenty-second Amendment to the United States Constitution.

United States presidential election, 2016
← 2012 November 8, 2016 2020 →
538 electoral votes of the Electoral College
270 electoral votes needed to win
The electoral map for the 2016 election, based on populations from the 2010 census
Incumbent President

Barack Obama
Democratic



Background

Further information: United States presidential election § Procedure

Article Two of the United States Constitution provides that for a person to be elected and serve as President of the United States, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, at least 35 years old, and a resident of the United States for a period of no less than 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties of the United States, in which case each party devises a method (such as a primary election) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position. The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The general election in November is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors in turn directly elect the President.

The incumbent, President Barack Obama, a Democrat and former U.S. Senator from Illinois, is ineligible to seek reelection to a third term due to restrictions of the Twenty-second Amendment; his term expires on January 20, 2017. In the 2008 election, Obama was elected president, defeating the Republican nominee, Senator John McCain of Arizona, receiving 52.9% of the popular vote and 68% of the electoral vote.[1][2]

2012 election

In the 2012 election, incumbent President Barack Obama defeated former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, with 51.1% of the popular vote and 332 (or 61.7%) of 538 electoral votes.[3] On election day CNN published an opinion piece listing “21 moments that defined the campaign and America”.[4]

During his second term, President Obama's approval ratings have been listed by Gallup as between 40 and 50 percent.[5][6][7][8]

Speculation about the 2016 campaign began almost immediately following the 2012 campaign, with New York magazine declaring the race had begun in an article published on November 8, 2012, two days after the 2012 election.[9] On the same day, Politico released an article predicting the 2016 general election may be between Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush, while a New York Times article named Chris Christie and Cory Booker as potential candidates.[10][11]

2014 midterm elections

In the United States elections for the Senate and House in 2012, Republicans retained their majority of seats in the House of Representatives despite minor losses while Democrats increased their majority in the Senate.[2] Subsequently, in the 2014 midterm elections, the Republicans won a majority of seats in both Houses of Congress, increasing the GOP majority in the House to its largest level since 1928 and gaining a majority in the Senate.[12]

Democratic Party

Main articles: Democratic Party (United States); Democratic Party presidential candidates, 2016; and Democratic Party presidential primaries, 2016

Former First Lady, former Senator from New York, and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton became the first Democrat to announce a candidacy for the presidency, which she did via a video on April 12, 2015.[13] Nationwide opinion polls in 2015 have indicated that Clinton is the front-runner for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination, but faces challenges from Independent Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders.[14] Sanders became the second candidate when he made a formal announcement on April 30 that he was running for the Democratic nomination.[15] Sanders' campaign stops have been drawing the largest crowds of any of the candidates in the run for president.[16] Polling numbers have indicated that the gap between Clinton and Sanders is narrowing.[17][14] Former Governor of Maryland Martin O'Malley was the third candidate to enter the race, which he did on May 30, 2015.[18] Lincoln Chafee, former Independent Governor and Republican Senator of Rhode Island, announced his candidacy on June 3, 2015.[19][20] Former Virginia Senator Jim Webb announced his canidacy on July 2, 2015.[21] Harvard law professor Lawrence Lessig announced his candidacy on September 6, 2015.[22]

Declared candidates

Individuals included in this section have taken one or both of the following actions: formally announced their candidacy for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination; filed as a Democratic presidential candidate with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) (for other than exploratory purposes). Candidates are listed alphabetically by surname.

Candidates included in this section have been listed in five or more major independent nationwide polls

Other candidates

The following notable individuals have taken one or both of the following actions: formally announced their candidacy; filed as a candidate with FEC.

Publicly expressed interest

As of September 2015, the following potential candidate has expressed interest in running for president within the past three months.

Potential candidates

As of August 2015, the following potential candidates have received speculation in at least two reliable sources within the past three months.

Republican Party

Main articles: Republican Party (United States); Republican Party presidential candidates, 2016; and Republican Party presidential primaries, 2016

United States Senator from Texas Ted Cruz became the first major candidate to announce a campaign in the 2016 election, which he did on March 23, 2015.[50][51] Kentucky Senator Rand Paul became the next candidate to announce on April 7, 2015.[52] Marco Rubio, Senator of Florida, became the next candidate, announcing on April 13.[53][54] Both neurosurgeon Ben Carson and businesswoman Carly Fiorina announced their candidacies on May 4, 2015.[55][56] Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas and 2008 presidential candidate, announced his candidacy the next day.[57] 2012 presidential candidate and former Senator from Pennsylvania Rick Santorum announced his campaign on May 27.[58] Former New York Governor George Pataki was the next to announce, doing so on May 28, 2015.[59] Lindsey Graham, Senator from South Carolina, announced he was running on June 1.[60] Former Governor of Texas Rick Perry, who also ran in 2012, announced he was running again on June 4.[61] Former Governor of Florida Jeb Bush joined the race on June 15.[62] Real estate developer and reality TV host Donald Trump announced he was running on June 16.[63] Bobby Jindal, Governor of Louisiana, announced his campaign on June 24.[64] Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey announced he was running on June 30.[65] Governor of Wisconsin Scott Walker announced his candidacy on July 13.[66] Ohio Governor John Kasich announced his run on July 21.[67] Former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore was the most recent Republican candidate to announce his candidacy, which he did on July 30, 2015.[68] On September 11, 2015, Rick Perry withdrew from the race.

Declared candidates

Individuals included in this section have taken one or both of the following actions: formally announced their candidacy for the Republican Party's presidential nomination; filed as a Republican presidential candidate with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) (for other than exploratory purposes). Candidates are listed alphabetically by surname.

Candidates included in this section have been listed in five or more major independent nationwide polls

Other candidates

The following notable individuals have taken one or both of the following actions: formally announced their candidacy; filed as a candidate with FEC.

Withdrawn candidates

Third party and Independent

Main Article:United States third party and independent presidential candidates, 2016

Declared candidates

Individuals included in this section have taken one or more of the following actions: formally announced their candidacy for the presidential nomination of a minor party; formally announced intention to run as an independent candidate; filed as a minor party or non-affiliated candidate with the FEC (for other than exploratory purposes). Candidates are listed by minor party and then alphabetically by surname.

American Freedom Party

Further information: American Freedom Party

Ballot Access: Mississippi (6 electoral votes)[111]

  • Bob Whitaker, political activist from South Carolina.[112] Vice-Presidential nominee: Vacant

Constitution Party

Further information: Constitution Party (United States)

Ballot Access: Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, South Carolina, Utah, Wisconsin, Wyoming (129 electoral votes)[113][114]

Publicly expressed interest

Green Party

Further information: Green Party of the United States

Ballot Access: Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, Washington D.C., Florida, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oregon, South Carolina, Texas, West Virginia, Wisconsin (296 Electoral Votes)[117][118]

Declared candidates

Formally exploring a candidacy

Libertarian Party

Further information: Libertarian Party (United States)

Ballot Access: Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oregon, South Carolina, Texas, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming (325 electoral votes)[123]

Declared candidates

Publicly expressed interest

Party for Socialism and Liberation

Further information: Party for Socialism and Liberation

Ballot Access: Florida (29 electoral votes)[129]

Peace and Freedom Party

Further information: Peace and Freedom Party

Ballot Access: California, Florida (84 electoral votes)[131][132]

Declared candidates

Prohibition Party

Further information: Prohibition Party

Ballot Access: None (0 electoral votes)[134]

  • James Hedges, Tax Assessor for Thompson Township, Fulton County, Pennsylvania 2002–2007.[135] Vice-Presidential nominee: Bill Bayes of Mississippi[135]

Veterans Party of America

Further information: Veterans Party of America

Ballot Access: Mississippi (6 electoral votes)[136]

  • Chris Keniston, Reliability Engineer from Texas.[137] Vice-Presidential nominee: Deacon Taylor of Nevada [138]

Declared candidates without a specified affiliation

Potential battleground states

Further information: Swing state

In every state except Maine and Nebraska, the winner of the popular vote in the state wins all of the electoral votes of the state (although state legislatures can, by law, change how electors are elected).[150] Maine and Nebraska use the "congressional district method," in which the winner of the state receives two electoral votes and candidates receive additional electoral votes for each congressional district that they win. Recent presidential campaigns have generally focused their resources on a relatively small number of competitive states.[151][152] Potential battleground states include Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida.[153] Democrats have discussed targeting Arizona, Georgia, and Texas as potentially competitive states.[153] Meanwhile, Republicans may also target Minnesota and New Jersey.[154] Other states may also become competitive if the close races of 2016 differ from the close races of the 2012 election, or if 2016 becomes a landslide election. Both major parties might decide to target the home states of their nominees or that of their running mates if they are from a swing state or have high favorability in the state or region.

Party conventions

 
 
   Philadelphia
 
Cleveland
 
Salt Lake City
 
Orlando
 
Houston
class=notpageimage|
Sites of the 2016 national party conventions.
Constitution Party
Main article: Constitution Party National Convention
Libertarian Party
Main article: 2016 Libertarian National Convention
Republican Party
Main article: 2016 Republican National Convention
Democratic Party
Main article: 2016 Democratic National Convention
Green Party
Main article: 2016 Green National Convention

Debates

Primary election debates

Main articles:

General presidential election debates

On April 1, 2015, the Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) announced that each of the following 15 locations are under consideration to host one of the three presidential debates and one vice presidential debate:[162]

The three locations which will host the presidential debates, and the one location selected to host the vice presidential debate, are to be announced by the CPD in the fall of 2015.[162][163]

Debate lawsuit

On June 22, 2015, the advocacy group Level the Playing Field, along with Peter Ackerman, the Green Party, and the Libertarian National Committee, filed a complaint for declaratory and injunctive relief against the Federal Election Commission in the United States District Court for the District of Columbia alleging that its failure to uphold debate fairness laws and address the corruption of the CPD after multiple unresolved requests to do so intentionally excluded third parties from the election process.[164][165] The FEC did take up the original complaint in a July 16 meeting, with a motion to open rulemaking failing 2–4 (Commissioners Ravel (D) and Weintraub (D) voting aye and Commissioners Goodman (R), Hunter (R), Petersen (R), and Walther (D) voting no).[166][167] Because the original complaint became moot after that meeting, the plaintiffs filed another complaint on August 27.[168]

Opinion polling

General election polling
Democratic primary polling
Republican primary polling

See also

References

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