Wikipedia

Endemic COVID-19

This is an old revision of this page, as edited by Nagromtpc (talk | contribs) at 18:54, 23 February 2023. The present address (URL) is a permanent link to this revision, which may differ significantly from the current revision.

As of February 2023, the global COVID-19 pandemic is still ongoing. In contrast, endemicity is characterized by people continuing to be infected and becoming ill, but in relatively stable numbers.

The observed behavior of the SARS-CoV-2 virus suggests it is unlikely it will die out, and the current lack of a COVID-19 vaccine that provides long-lasting immunity against infection means it cannot immediately be eradicated.[1]

From 2021 onward, politicians and health officials in some countries have said that COVID-19 is endemic or that their country was beginning to transition to an endemic phase. These include Cambodia,[2] Finland,[3] Indonesia,[4] Malaysia,[5] Mexico,[6] the Philippines,[7] Singapore[8], the Netherlands"OMT: grootschalig testen op corona niet meer nodig, ziekte 'hoort erbij'" (in Dutch). NOS.nl. 23 February 2023. Retrieved 23 February 2023. and Vietnam.[9]

Background

There is no single agreed definition of what it means for COVID-19 to become endemic.[10]

During the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, it became apparent that the SARS-CoV-2 virus was unlikely to die out, but was more likely to become endemic. Endemicity is characterized by the continued existence of the virus, but with lower levels of infection than in the preceding epidemic. People continue to become infected because of changes and movement within populations, and endemic disease may have seasonal infection patterns, but the largest determinant of how endemicity manifests itself is the levels of immunity people have, both as a result of vaccination and infection. In the absence of a vaccine that provides long-lasting immunity against infection from COVID-19, it will be impossible to eradicate the disease.[1]

The severity of a disease in an endemic phase depends on how long-lasting immunity against severe outcomes is. If such immunity is lifelong, or lasts longer than immunity against infection, then reinfections will be mild, resulting in a mild endemic phase. In existing human coronaviruses, protection against infection is transient, but observed reinfections are mild.[1]

Coronaviruses display remarkable evolutionary diversification due to mutation and homologous recombination.[11] Like numerous other RNA viruses, coronaviruses frequently recombine during viral genome replication, causing the production of new genetic variants that may influence the future evolutionary paths of SARS-CoV-2.[11]

Global view

On 14 April 2022, the World Health Organization (WHO) said that COVID-19 is far from becoming an endemic disease and could still trigger large outbreaks around the globe.[12]

In June 2022, an article in Human Genomics said that the pandemic was "still raging" but "now is the time to explore the transition from the pandemic to the endemic phase. The latter will require worldwide vigilance and cooperation, especially in emerging countries", and suggested that developed countries should assist in boosting COVID-19 vaccination rates worldwide.[13]

Cambodia

Main article: COVID-19 pandemic in Cambodia

On 24 January 2022, Hok Kim Cheng, a spokesman for the Cambodian Health Ministry said that Cambodia was entering the endemic stage of the coronavirus. He cited milder outcomes for Omicron variant infections, and high vaccination rates. The World Health Organization representative in Cambodia, Dr Li Ailan, disagreed, responding: "We are still at the pandemic phase globally including Cambodia".[2]

Finland

Main article: COVID-19 pandemic in Finland

In July 2022, the Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare issued a statement[14] arguing that Finland was transitioning into the endemic phase of COVID-19.[15][16][17][18][19]

Hong Kong

Main article: COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong

On 19 January 2023, Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu announced the forthcoming termination of Hong Kong's mandatory isolation rule starting 30 January as part of a decision to downgrade COVID-19 status to an endemic disease. He stated that the decision was made partly due to high vaccination and infection rates, and mild symptoms in infected persons. Edwin Tsui, the controller of the Centre for Health Protection said that asymptomatic individuals that are infected can go out freely or return to the workplace, but advised continued quarantining for students and symptomatic individuals. He stated "we will monitor COVID-19 similar to...influenza" and that "[COVID-19] is an endemic respiratory disease".[20][21]

Indonesia

Main article: COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia

On 20 September 2022, the Executive Board of the Indonesian Medical Association's (IDI's) COVID-19 task force head Erlina Burhan stated that Indonesia is on the right track in its endeavors to enter the COVID-19 endemic stage.[4]

Macau

Main article: COVID-19 pandemic in Macau

At a press conference on 5 January 2023, the Macau Health Bureau director Alvis Lo Iek Long stated that COVID-19 has become an endemic disease in Macau, and announced the cancellation of almost all entry curbs and measures. The statement follows a transition period that began on 8 December with the gradual easing of transmission curbs.[22][23]

Malaysia

Main article: COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia

In September 2021, Malaysian Minister of Health Khairy Jamaluddin announced that the government would transition to treating COVID-19 as if it was in an "endemic phase" by the end of October 2021, after vaccinating 80% of the population.[24][25] Movement controls in the country were lifted in October 2021.[26] In March 2022, Khairy said that Malaysians could start "to live with COVID-19" while maintaining some public health measures.[5]

Philippines

Main article: COVID-19 pandemic in the Philippines

In February 2022, the Philippines Department of Health began shifting toward the endemic phase of COVID-19, despite caution from the WHO that it may be too early to declare. During a media briefing, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said that the "transition to an endemic state for COVID-19 does not mean that the government would stop its interventions or even remove minimum health protocols such as masking, physical distancing, and hand sanitation." WHO Acting Philippine Representative Rajendra Yadav said that while the continued drop in the number of new cases is "encouraging," the country should be careful in moving from the "acute phase" of the pandemic.[7]

Singapore

Main article: COVID-19 pandemic in Singapore

In June 2021, Gan Kim Yong, Ong Ye Kung and Lawrence Wong—chairs of Singapore's COVID-19 task force—stated that "COVID-19 may never go away", but that due to high vaccination rates, a roadmap was being developed for how the city state could eventually live "normally with [COVID-19] in our midst", and manage it as an endemic disease, which would include:[8][27]

  • Using rapid COVID-19 tests for screening, as opposed to slower PCR tests, contact tracing, and quarantine.
  • Deemphasis on COVID-19 case numbers in favour of "outcomes"
  • Emphasis on COVID-19 patients being able to recover at home[28]
  • Easing restrictions on gatherings and avoiding lockdowns
  • Easing travel restrictions for those who are fully-vaccinated

They stated that "Science and human ingenuity will eventually prevail over COVID-19. Cohesion and social consciousness will get us there faster. We must all do our part."[8][27] Shortly after the plans were revealed, however, outbreaks tied to the Delta variant began to emerge, leading the Singapore government to reintroduce restrictions on gatherings. In October 2021, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong admitted that it would take at least six months to reach a "new normal", but that Singapore's high vaccination rates and low mortality meant that COVID-19 "has become a treatable, mild disease for most of us", the impact of COVID-19 variants had made a COVID-Zero strategy less feasible, and that maintaining restrictions would impact the economy and mental health of the country.[29][30]

United States

Main article: COVID-19 pandemic in the United States

On April 26, 2022, Chief Medical Advisor to the President and director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) Anthony Fauci argued that the United States was "out of the pandemic phase".[31] The following day, Fauci stated that the country was in a "transitional phase" into "hopefully a more controlled phase and endemicity", but that "the world is still in a pandemic", and the United States could still see new waves of infection. Fauci's comments followed a report from the CDC indicating that the United States had a much higher level of collective immunity due to the Omicron variant.[32]

Analysis

A 2021 article in The Lancet called restrictions being lifted in the United Kingdom "dangerous and immature" and expressed concern that mass infection could lead to vaccine resistance and would impact young people, children and health services.[33] In The BMJ in February 2022, several health policy and public health experts criticised the British government's "living with COVID" plan, suggesting the end of free COVID-19 testing could exacerbate health inequality, and suggesting the plan did not account for required resources for localised contact tracing and hospital capacity.[34]

Elizabeth Stokoe and colleagues wrote in March 2022 that the phrase "living with COVID-19" is a cliché that has two opposed, disputed meanings. On the one hand it can mean simply returning to pre-pandemic living; on the other it can mean that life now must incorporate public health mitigation measures to reduce the impact of the disease as it circulates at high rates. In the United Kingdom, the phrase had enjoyed wide currency among politicians and the popular media, particular in the later, post-2021, phases of the pandemic.[35]

See also

References

  1. ^ a b c Antia R, Halloran ME (October 2021). "Transition to endemicity: Understanding COVID-19". Immunity (Review). 54 (10): 2172–2176. doi:10.1016/j.immuni.2021.09.019. PMC 8461290. PMID 34626549.
  2. ^ a b Sreylin, Yim (24 January 2022). "End-emic is nigh: Cambodia 'transiting from C-19 pandemic stage'". Khmer Times. Retrieved 14 November 2022.
  3. ^ "THL: Covid vaccine may have saved 10,000 lives in Finland this year". yle.fi. Yle News. 27 July 2022. Retrieved 27 November 2022. A top official at the Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare says that the Covid-19 pandemic has moved on to an endemic phase, meaning that it remains constant at a baseline level.
  4. ^ a b "Indonesia Posed to Reach COVID-19 Endemic Stage: IDI". MSN (in Indonesian). Retrieved 20 September 2022.
  5. ^ a b Arumugam, Tharanya (5 March 2022). "Malaysians can start to live with Covid-19, says KJ". New Straits Times. Retrieved 5 April 2022.
  6. ^ "Mexico says coronavirus now endemic, not pandemic". ABC News.
  7. ^ a b "Govt readies shift to endemic phase". The Manila Times. 12 February 2022.
  8. ^ a b c "Singapore plans out new normal life with COVID-19 endemic". The Hindu. 24 June 2021. Retrieved 22 January 2022.
  9. ^ "Asia's COVID success stories become the world's worst hot spots – Nikkei Asia". Asia.nikkei.com. 30 March 2022. Retrieved 23 June 2022.
  10. ^ Duong D (October 2022). "Endemic, not over: looking ahead to a new COVID era". CMAJ. 194 (39): E1358 – E1359. doi:10.1503/cmaj.1096021. PMC 9616156. PMID 36220172.
  11. ^ a b Amoutzias GD, Nikolaidis M, Tryfonopoulou E, Chlichlia K, Markoulatos P, Oliver SG. The Remarkable Evolutionary Plasticity of Coronaviruses by Mutation and Recombination: Insights for the COVID-19 Pandemic and the Future Evolutionary Paths of SARS-CoV-2. Viruses. 2022 Jan 2;14(1):78. doi: 10.3390/v14010078. PMID: 35062282; PMCID: PMC8778387
  12. ^ "WHO warns coronavirus is far from settling into endemic situation". Al Jazeera. 14 April 2022. Retrieved 8 November 2022.
  13. ^ Biancolella, Michela; Colona, Vito Luigi; Mehrian-Shai, Ruty; Watt, Jessica Lee; Luzzatto, Lucio; Novelli, Giuseppe; Reichardt, Juergen K. V. (2022). "COVID-19 2022 update: Transition of the pandemic to the endemic phase". Human Genomics. 16 (1): 19. doi:10.1186/s40246-022-00392-1. PMC 9156835. PMID 35650595. S2CID 249274308.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: unflagged free DOI (link)
  14. ^ "Olemme siirtyneet koronapandemiasta uuteen vaiheeseen". thl.fi (in Finnish). Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare. 27 July 2022. Retrieved 27 November 2022.
  15. ^ "THL: Covid vaccine may have saved 10,000 lives in Finland this year". yle.fi. Yle News. 27 July 2022. Retrieved 27 November 2022. A top official at the Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare says that the Covid-19 pandemic has moved on to an endemic phase, meaning that it remains constant at a baseline level.
  16. ^ Vuolteenaho, Salla (27 July 2022). "THL:n mukaan olemme siirtyneet koronapandemiasta endemiaan – "On aika todeta, että emme enää elä akuuttia kriisivaihetta"". yle.fi (in Finnish). Yle. Retrieved 27 November 2022.
  17. ^ Sinisalo, Saga; Ervasti, Anu-Elina (27 July 2022). "THL:n Salminen: Koronaviruksen leviämisessä uusi vaihe – Pandemiasta siirryttiin endemiaan". hs.fi (in Finnish). Helsingin Sanomat. Retrieved 27 November 2022.
  18. ^ Kauppinen, Hanna (27 July 2022). "THL: Pandemiasta endemiaan – korona lienee tullut jäädäkseen". laakarilehti.fi (in Finnish). Lääkärilehti. Retrieved 27 November 2022.
  19. ^ Forsman, Tommi; Nykänen, Maria (28 July 2022). "Onko korona nyt pysyvästi keskuudessamme? THL:n Salminen: "Sen kanssa joudutaan elämään ainakin allekirjoittaneen loppuiän"". mtvuutiset.fi (in Finnish). MTV3. Retrieved 27 November 2022.
  20. ^ "Hong Kong to scrap isolation rule for new COVID-19 cases". AP NEWS. January 19, 2023.
  21. ^ "Hong Kong to scrap isolation requirement for people with COVID". Reuters. January 19, 2023 – via www.reuters.com.
  22. ^ "20 COVID-19 fatalities in 3 days, official death toll rises to 83".
  23. ^ "Hong Kong may shift Covid's status from 'pandemic' to 'endemic': What it means". 10 January 2023.
  24. ^ "Covid-19 expected to become endemic in Malaysia by end of October, says KJ". The Star. Retrieved 5 April 2022.
  25. ^ "Covid-19 endemic stage for Malaysia expected late October". MSN. Retrieved 5 April 2022.
  26. ^ "Malaysia restarts interstate, overseas travel as it hits vaccine milestone". South China Morning Post. 10 October 2021. Retrieved 5 April 2022.
  27. ^ a b "Singapore wants to stop counting Covid cases. Its roadmap could be a model for other countries". CNN. 30 June 2021. Retrieved 22 January 2022.
  28. ^ Auto, Hermes (4 October 2021). "Issues with Covid-19 home recovery programme being ironed out: Ong Ye Kung". The Straits Times. Retrieved 10 February 2022.
  29. ^ Auto, Hermes (22 January 2022). "Navigating the bumps in Singapore's road to living with Covid-19 | The Straits Times". Straits Times. Archived from the original on 9 February 2022. Retrieved 10 February 2022.
  30. ^ Auto, Hermes (9 October 2021). "Zero-Covid strategy no longer feasible due to highly infectious Delta variant: PM Lee | The Straits Times". www.straitstimes.com. Retrieved 10 February 2022.
  31. ^ "Dr. Fauci on why the U.S. Is 'out of the pandemic phase'". PBS Newshour. 26 April 2022. Retrieved 2022-06-09.
  32. ^ Achenbach, Joel; Pietsch, Bryan (April 27, 2022). "U.S. no longer in 'full-blown' pandemic phase, Fauci says". The Washington Post.
  33. ^ Gurdasani, Deepti; Drury, John; Greenhalgh, Trisha; Griffin, Stephen; Haque, Zubaida; Hyde, Zoë; Katzourakis, Aris; McKee, Martin; Michie, Susan; Pagel, Christina; Reicher, Stephen (7 July 2021). "Mass infection is not an option: we must do more to protect our young". The Lancet. 398 (10297): 297–298. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01589-0. ISSN 0140-6736. PMC 8262842. PMID 34245669.
  34. ^ Limb, Matthew (28 February 2022). "Covid-19: Is the government dismantling pandemic systems too hastily?". BMJ. 376: o515. doi:10.1136/bmj.o515. ISSN 1756-1833. PMID 35228255. S2CID 247146564.
  35. ^ Stokoe E, Simons S, Drury J, Michie S, Parker M, Phoenix A, Reicher S, Wardlaw B, West R (March 2022). "What can we learn from the language of "living with covid"?". BMJ. 376: o575. doi:10.1136/bmj.o575. PMID 35241485. S2CID 247221989.
Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Endemic_COVID-19&oldid=1141172504"