Enlargement of the eurozone: Difference between revisions

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{{Main article|Romania and the euro}}
 
Originally, the euro was scheduled to be adopted by Romania in place of the [[Romanian leu|leu]] by 2014.<ref>{{cite web | url = http://www.zf.ro/eveniment/isarescu-trecem-la-euro-dupa-2012-3009254/ | title = Isarescu: Trecem la euro dupa 2012 | accessdate = 1 February 2011 | date = 18 May 2006 | language = Romanian}}</ref> In April 2012 the Romanian convergence report submitted under the [[Stability and Growth Pact]] listed 1 January 2015 to be the target date for euro adoption.<ref name="Romanian Convergence Programme 2012">{{cite web|url=http://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/pdf/nd/cp2012_romania_en.pdf|title=Government of Romania: 2012–15 Convergence Programme|publisher=European Commission|date=30 April 2012|accessdate=1 September 2012}}</ref> In TheApril governor2013 ofPrime theMinister [[NationalVictor Bank of RomaniaPonta]] arguedhas in November 2012stated that it"eurozone hadentry beenremains a financialfundamental benefitobjective for Romania tobut notwe becan't aenter partpoorly of the euro area during the [[European debt crisis]]prepared", butand that the2020 countrywas in the years ahead would strive to comply with all the convergence criteria.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/04/world/europe/resilient-romania-finds-advantage-in-a-crisis.html?pagewanted=1|title=Resilient Romaniamore Finds a Currency Advantage in a Crisis|publisher=The New York Times|date=3 November 2012|accessdate=5 November 2012|first=Dan|last=Bilefsky}}</ref> In April 2013 Romania submitted their annual Convergence Programme to the European Commission, which for the first time did not specify arealistic target date for euro adoption.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/pdf/nd/cp2013_romania_en.pdf|title=Government of Romania - Convergence Programme - 2013–2016|date=April 2013|publisher=[[Government of Romania]]}}</ref><ref name=ROMTAG>{{cite news|url=http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/10002050/Romania-abandons-target-date-for-joining-euro.html|title=Romania abandons target date for joining euro|date=18 April 2013|accessdate=1 May 2013|publisher=[[The Daily Telegraph]]|last=Trotman|first=Andrew|location=London}}</ref> The PrimeRomanian MinisterCentral Bank governor, [[VictorMugur PontaIsărescu]], hasadmitted statedthe thattarget "eurozonewas entryambitious, remainsbut obtainable if the political parties passed a fundamentallegal objectiveroadmap for Romaniathe butrequired wereforms can'tto enterbe poorly prepared"implemented, and thatclarified 2020this wasroadmap ashould morelead realisticto target.<refRomania name=ROMTAG/>entering ERM-2 Theonly followingon year,1 Romania'sJanuary Convergence2017 Reportso setthe aeuro targetcould datebe adopted after two years of ERM-2 membership on 1 January 2019 for euro adoption.<ref name=romcp2014>{{cite"Romanian web|url=http://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/pdf/csr2014/cp2014_romania_en.pdf|title=Governmentcentral ofbank Romaniagovernor - Convergence programmetargets ERM-II 2014–2017|date=Aprilentry 2014|publisher=Governmenton of1 Romania}}</ref><refJan name=romtarg2017">{{cite newsweb|url=httpshttp://wwwbusiness-review.bloomberg.comeu/newsfeatured/2014isarescu-05-06/romania-setsneeds-2019law-asto-targetenforce-date-to-join2019-euro-areaadoption-voineatarget-says.html68724|title=Isarescu: Romania Setsneeds 2019law asto Targetenforce Date to Join2019 Euro-adoption Area, Voinea Saystarget|datepublisher=6Business May 2014Review|accessdatedate=1419 MayAugust 2014|publisher=[[Bloomberg News|Bloomberg]]}}</ref>
 
As of April 2015, the Romanian government concluded it was still on track to attain its target for euro adoption in 2019, both in regards of ensuring full compliance with all nominal convergence criteria and in regards of ensuring a prior satisfying degree of "real convergence". The Romanian target for "real convergence" ahead of euro adoption, is for its GDP per capita (in purchasing power standards) to be above 60% of the same average figure for the entire European Union, and according to the latest outlook, this relative figure was now forecast to reach 65% in 2018 and 71% in 2020,<ref name="Romanian CP2015"/> after having risen at the same pace from 29% in 2002 to 54% in 2014.<ref name="GDP per Capita - in percentage of the EU-average"/> FinallyHowever, thein RomanianSeptember government2015 alsoRomania's expressedcentral itsbank commitmentgovernor fullyMugur toIsarescu joinsaid all pillars ofthat the [[Banking2019 Union]],target aswas soonno aslonger possiblerealistic.<ref name="Romanian CP2015">{{cite web | url=httphttps://eceuobserver.europa.eucom/europe2020tickers/pdf/csr2015/cp2015_romania_en.pdf130506 | title =Government ofCentral Bank: Romania Convergence2019 Programmeeuro membership 'not feasible'. | accessdate = 2015-201812-30 | publisher=GovernmentEUObserver of Romania| date =April 2015-09-30 | language = English}}</ref> AccordingThe tonew atarget eurobarometerdate pollhas inbecome Aprilthe 2015year 2022, 68as percentTeodor areMeleșcanu, inthe favorforeign minister of introducingRomania thehas eurodeclared (aon the decrease28th of 6August percent2017 fromthat, 2014)as they "meet all formal requirements", whereasRomania 26"could percentjoin arethe opposedcurrency (anunion increaseeven oftomorrow". 2However, percenthe fromthinks 2014)Romania "will adopt the euro in five years."<ref>{{cite nameweb | url="2014https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/28/reuters-04america-romania-may-join-euro-zone-in-2022-says-foreign-minister--report.html Eurobarometer"/><ref name| title ="2015 Romania may join euro zone in 2022, says foreign minister -04 Eurobarometer"report. | accessdate = 2017-08-28 | publisher=CNBC | date = 2017-08-28 | language = English}}</ref>.
According to the [[Erste Group|Erste Group Bank]], it would be very difficult for Romania to meet this 2019 target, not in regards of complying with the five nominal convergence criteria values, but in regards of reaching some appropriate levels of real convergence (i.e. raising the GDP per capita from 50% to a level above 60% of the EU average) ahead of the euro adoption.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.wall-street.ro/articol/Economie/166152/erste-romania-in-zona-euro-in-2019-un-obiectiv-foarte-ambitios-realist-ar-fi-dupa-2021.html|title=Erste: Romania in zona euro in 2019, un obiectiv "foarte ambitios".Realist ar fi dupa 2021. (Erste: Romania in the euro area in 2019, a goal "very ambitious". Realistically it would be after 2021.)|language=Romanian|publisher=Wall-Street Romania|date=19 May 2014}}</ref> The Romanian Central Bank governor, [[Mugur Isărescu]], admitted the target was ambitious, but obtainable if the political parties passed a legal roadmap for the required reforms to be implemented, and clarified this roadmap should lead to Romania entering ERM-2 only on 1 January 2017 so the euro could be adopted after two years of ERM-2 membership on 1 January 2019.<ref name="Romanian central bank governor targets ERM-II entry on 1 Jan 2017">{{cite web|url=http://business-review.eu/featured/isarescu-romania-needs-law-to-enforce-2019-euro-adoption-target-68724|title=Isarescu: Romania needs law to enforce 2019 Euro-adoption target|publisher=Business Review|date=19 August 2014}}</ref> In April 2015, Isărescu stated that the technical requirement for adoption of the euro 1 January 2019 would imply joining ERM-2 at the latest in the first half of 2016. Ahead of ERM-2 entry, Isărescu argued, Romania needs to conduct monetary adjustments in form of finalizing the process of bringing minimum [[reserve requirement ratio]]s in line with eurozone levels (a process envisaged to last between 1-1½ year) and to complete major economic policy adjustments: 1) Removing the sources of repressed inflation (i.e. completion of the energy market deregulation), 2) Removing sources of quasi-fiscal deficits (by restructuring loss-making state-owned enterprises), 3) Removing other sources of future budgetary pressures (i.e. the unavoidable expenditures to modernise road infrastructure).<ref name="Isărescu clarified BNR's criteria for ERM-2 entry">{{cite web|url=http://www.bnr.ro/Opening-speech-delivered-at-the-2015-COFACE-Country-Risk-Conference-12253.aspx|title=Opening speech delivered at the 2015 COFACE Country Risk Conference (Mugur Isărescu)|publisher=Banca Naţională a României|date=29 April 2015}}</ref>
 
As of April 2015, the Romanian government concluded it was still on track to attain its target for euro adoption in 2019, both in regards of ensuring full compliance with all nominal convergence criteria and in regards of ensuring a prior satisfying degree of "real convergence". The Romanian target for "real convergence" ahead of euro adoption, is for its GDP per capita (in purchasing power standards) to be above 60% of the same average figure for the entire European Union, and according to the latest outlook, this relative figure was now forecast to reach 65% in 2018 and 71% in 2020,<ref name="Romanian CP2015"/> after having risen at the same pace from 29% in 2002 to 54% in 2014.<ref name="GDP per Capita - in percentage of the EU-average"/> Finally, the Romanian government also expressed its commitment fully to join all pillars of the [[Banking Union]], as soon as possible.<ref name="Romanian CP2015">{{cite web|url=http://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/pdf/csr2015/cp2015_romania_en.pdf|title=Government of Romania Convergence Programme 2015-2018|publisher=Government of Romania|date=April 2015}}</ref> According to a eurobarometer poll in April 2015, 68 percent are in favor of introducing the euro (a decrease of 6 percent from 2014), whereas 26 percent are opposed (an increase of 2 percent from 2014).<ref name="2014-04 Eurobarometer"/><ref name="2015-04 Eurobarometer"/>
 
===Sweden===