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:: Since the time I posted this, Nijdam has corrected his original false proof of the answer being 2/3. That was what this argument was all about. I agree it's 1/3 and I agree that my rebuttal was sloppy and in fact wrong. But the others here also need to accept that I was right when I said it's not 2/3 - which is what the issue was. And frankly, my intuitive answer of .25 is indeed a lot closer to the true answer of 1/3, than the original false answer of 2/3 - so the naysayers here should put that in the pipe and smoke it. This entire dialog adds weight to my original point which was: Intuitive thinking isn't as bad as some make it out to be. Rather that being mocked, it should be bolstered with some probability math training. In fact, it was only me here who recognized that the answer simply '''could not be 2/3''' - but it was my weaker math skills which stopped me from proving correctly. [[User:Tweedledee2011|Tweedledee2011]] ([[User talk:Tweedledee2011|talk]]) 16:07, 18 January 2014 (UTC)
:'...it was only me here who recognized that the answer simply '''could not be 2/3''' '? Come off it. Nijdam quickly corrected his error and I had already given the answer of 1/3. [[User:Martin Hogbin|Martin Hogbin]] ([[User talk:Martin Hogbin|talk]]) 01:13, 19 January 2014 (UTC)
:: It took him 2 days, he hid his mistake and he only saw the right solution after the page filled up with arguments. Also, as part of one of my arguments, I was the first one to insert a 1/6 into what I was saying. Why don't you please admit what I am telling you: We could make MHP better if you stopped trying to think that I am trying to defeat the math - I'm not. Rather, I'm trying to find a narrative that helps verbal thinkers see the solutions more easily. And I know what I'm trying to do because I am a verbal thinker and it takes me real effort to break out of that sometimes - especially when things initially look simpler than they are. [[User:Tweedledee2011|Tweedledee2011]] ([[User talk:Tweedledee2011|talk]]) 02:19, 19 January 2014 (UTC)
== In light of the urn problem ==
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