Cape independence: Difference between revisions

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{{Hatnote|The article is about the secessionist movement. For the political parties centred around the movement, see [[Cape Independence Party]] and [[Referendum Party (South Africa)]].}}
[[File:Cape_independence_march_cpt.jpg|thumb|March for Cape Independence]]
'''Cape independence''' ([[Afrikaans]]: ''Kaapse onafhanklikheid''; [[Xhosa language|isiXhosa]]: ''inkululeko yaseKapa''), also known by the portmanteau '''CapeXit''',<ref name=":11">{{cite web|date=31 May 2021 |title=The CapeXit mission: Can this be Brexit for the Western Cape?|url=https://www.thesouthafrican.com/lifestyle/capexit-independent-country-western-cape/ |access-date=19 August 2021 |website=The South African|language=en-ZA|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230119221626/https://www.thesouthafrican.com/lifestyle/capexit-independent-country-western-cape/ | archive-date=19 January 2023}}</ref> is a [[political movement]] that seeks the independence of the [[Western Cape]] [[Provinces of South Africa|province]] (alongside Afrikaans-speaking portions of the [[Eastern Cape|Eastern]] and [[Northern Cape]] provinces in some proposals)<ref name=":1">{{cite web|date=17 July 2018 |title=Khoi-San king declares that the Cape has seceded from SA|url=https://www.citizen.co.za/news/south-africa/khoi-san-king-declares-that-the-cape-has-seceded-from-sa/|access-date=17 August 2021 |website=[[The Citizen (South African newspaper)|The Citizen]]|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230720132723/https://www.citizen.co.za/news/south-africa/khoi-san-king-declares-that-the-cape-has-seceded-from-sa/ |archive-date=20 July 2023 |language=en}}</ref> from [[South Africa]].<ref name=":14">{{cite web|first=Unathi |last=Nkanjeni |title=An independent Western Cape on the cards? Here is what you need to know about the independence bid |url=https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2021-06-01-an-independent-western-cape-on-the-cards-here-is-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-independence-bid/|access-date=17 August 2021|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230404025001/https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2021-06-01-an-independent-western-cape-on-the-cards-here-is-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-independence-bid/|website=TimesLIVE |archive-date=2023-04-04 |language=en-ZA}}</ref><ref name=":6"> {{cite web|date=18 July 2020 |title=Westkapers streven naar onafhankelijkheid |trans-title=Western Capes strive for independence |url=https://www.telegraaf.nl/nieuws/1053451044/westkapers-streven-naar-onafhankelijkheid|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230404012516/https://www.telegraaf.nl/nieuws/1053451044/westkapers-streven-naar-onafhankelijkheid |archive-date=2023-04-04 |access-date=17 August 2021 |website=[[De Telegraaf]] |language=nl}}</ref>
 
== Context ==
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=== Political context ===
Mainstream political figures including [[John Steenhuisen]], the leader of the [[Democratic Alliance (South Africa)|Democratic Alliance]], have indicated support for [[devolution]] proposals that would give the Western Cape more autonomy.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Steenhuisen |first=John |date=2022-11-01 |title=John Steenhuisen {{!}} The revolution has failed. Let's try devolution |url=https://www.news24.com/news24/opinions/columnists/guestcolumn/john-steenhuisen-the-revolution-has-failed-lets-try-devolution-20221101 |archive-url=https://archive.today/20221101092415/https://www.news24.com/news24/opinions/columnists/guestcolumn/john-steenhuisen-the-revolution-has-failed-lets-try-devolution-20221101 |archive-date=2022-11-01|access-date=2023-07-05 |website=News24 |language=en-US}}</ref> Critics of devolution proposals, including [[African National Congress]] (ANC) leaders, argue that they amount to covert support for Cape Independence.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Githahu |first=Mwangi |date=2023-05-30 |title=ANC slams DA 'devolution of powers bill' |url=https://www.iol.co.za/capeargus/news/anc-slams-da-devolution-of-powers-bill-6d887507-0125-4b06-88a5-6f7036237840|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230706210748/https://www.iol.co.za/capeargus/news/anc-slams-da-devolution-of-powers-bill-6d887507-0125-4b06-88a5-6f7036237840 |archive-date=2023-07-06 |access-date=2023-07-05 |website=IOL}}</ref>
 
== Criticism ==
 
=== Accusations of racism ===
[[File:CIAG Press Conference-0001.png|thumb|right|Committee members of the Cape Independence Advisory Group.]]
The Cape independence movement has been met with criticism involving racism.<ref>{{cite web|first=Lebelihle |last=Bhengu |title='A Boer republic is a failed dream' – Ndlozi responds to calls for Western Cape independence |url=https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2020-11-12-a-boer-republic-is-a-failed-dream-ndlozi-responds-to-calls-for-western-cape-independence/ |access-date=17 August 2021 |website=TimesLIVE |language=en-ZA}}</ref> Some critics allege that the movement is an attempt to create a white ethnonationalist state and seeking to reimplement the former apartheid system.<ref>{{cite web|last=Poplak |first=Richard |date=3 February 2019 |title=TRAINSPOTTER: Cape of Good Nope — How a fringe party heralds arrival of brave new balkanisation |url=https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2019-02-04-cape-of-good-nope-how-a-fringe-party-heralds-arrival-of-brave-new-balkanisation/ |access-date=17 August 2021 |website=Daily Maverick |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|last=Verwoerd |first=Melanie |title=Melanie Verwoerd {{!}} Wexit: Should the Western Cape become independent?|url=https://www.news24.com/news24/columnists/melanieverwoerd/melanie-verwoerd-wexit-should-the-western-cape-become-independent-20210408 |access-date=17 August 2021 |website=News24 |language=en-US}}</ref> Polling conducted by Victory Research on behalf of the Cape Independence Advocacy Group (CIAG) in Q3 2023 found that 62% of white people, 78% of coloured people, and 31% of black people supported Cape independence.<ref name=poll_23>{{Cite web |last=CIAG Website |date= August 2023 |title=Victory Research Polling Data from CIAG Website 23 |url= https://uploads-ssl.webflow.com/5ea6a2f1a59e17c056703197/64ec37b43999b3c2c596f534_Results%20Chart.png |access-date=11 January 2024 |website=CIAG}}</ref>
 
In April 2022, the CIAG was accused of racism for a pictograph which depicted the rest of South Africa as black and the Western Cape as shades of brown, black, and white. This was displayed alongside two other images with the imagery of the USSR and ANC over South Africa, with only the Western Cape showing the Ukrainian and Democratic Alliance colours under the heading "We're Just Different".<ref name="capetownetc.com">{{Cite web |last=Nefdt |first=Ashleigh |date=4 April 2022 |title='We're Just Different' pictograph lands CIAG in hot water over perceived racism |url=https://www.capetownetc.com/news/were-just-different-pictograph-lands-ciag-in-hot-water-over-perceived-racism/ |access-date=2022-04-05 |website=www.capetownetc.com}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |last=Nkanjeni |first=Unathi |date=4 April 2022 |title=Cape Independence Advocacy Group apologises for 'racist' tweet |url=https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2022-04-04-cape-independence-advocacy-group-apologises-for-racist-tweet/ |website=TimesLIVE}}</ref>
 
=== Legality arguments ===
Critics argue that a constitutional amendment would be required, as Section 235 of the South African Constitution, while formally and officially establishing ''"the right of self-determination of any community sharing a common cultural and language heritage"'', does not place a legal obligation for the National Assembly to respect this right to self determination; and hence, that a referendum would be non-binding; nor does it provide a framework for a territory of the Republic to secede.<ref>{{cite web|last=Vos |first=Pierre de |date=12 August 2020 |title=OPINIONISTA: Fringe talk of Western Cape secession is reactionary – and unachievable |url=https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/opinionista/2020-08-12-fringe-talk-of-western-cape-secession-is-reactionary-and-unachievable/ |access-date=17 August 2021 |website=Daily Maverick |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|title=Western Cape secession 'a completely dumb idea that legally can never happen' |url=https://www.capetalk.co.za/articles/392900/western-cape-secession-a-completely-dumb-idea-that-legally-can-never-happen |access-date=18 August 2021 |website=CapeTalk |language=en-ZA}}</ref> Furthermore, critics argue that advocating is tantamount to [[sedition]]<ref>{{cite web|last=Wright |first=Jonathan |date=28 July 2020 |title=Cape Independence: A Legal Question of Constitutional Compatibility |url=https://rationalstandard.com/cape-independence-a-legal-question-of-constitutional-compatibility/ |url-status=live |website=Rational Standard |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200808234053/https://rationalstandard.com/cape-independence-a-legal-question-of-constitutional-compatibility/ |archive-date=8 August 2020}}</ref> – however, former National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) spokesperson Mthunzi Mhlaga has stated that secession is a political matter.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.lawlibrary.co.za/notice/updates/2010/issue_01/recentjudgments_ecm.htm |title=InfoUpdate 1 of 2010 – Recent Judgments – Eastern Cape: Mthatha |website=www.lawlibrary.co.za |access-date=18 June 2018}}</ref>
 
=== Spectre of civil war ===
It is claimed by other opponents of the Cape independence movement that even if a successful referendum were to be held, the national government would never recognise the outcome and would commission the military to control the region, thus leading to a possible [[civil war]].<ref>{{Cite web |last=Daniel |first=Luke |date=2018-07-22 |title=Western Cape independence: Is secession from South Africa possible? |url=https://www.thesouthafrican.com/opinion/western-cape-independence-is-secession-from-south-africa-possible/ |access-date=2021-08-17 |website=The South African |language=en-ZA}}</ref><ref name=":4">{{cite web|last=Vegter |first=Ivo |date=13 August 2021 |title=Cape independence popularity boost |url=https://dailyfriend.co.za/2021/08/13/cape-independence-popularity-boost/ |access-date=17 August 2021 |website=Daily Friend |language=en-ZA}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |last=Githahu |first=Mwangi |date=16 August 2021 |title=Idea of a Western Cape secession dismissed as unrealistic, dangerous |url=https://www.iol.co.za/capeargus/news/idea-of-a-western-cape-secession-dismissed-as-unrealistic-dangerous-18d980c1-03e9-45ad-8f38-c5aad8931727 |access-date=18 August 2021 |website=www.iol.co.za |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|title=Could The Western Cape Secede? {{!}} eNCA |url=https://www.enca.com/opinion/could-western-cape-secede |access-date=18 August 2021 |website=www.enca.com |language=en}}</ref>
 
== History ==
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=== Opinion polling ===
ThreeThere have been three [[opinion poll]]s have been completed to date, all of them conducted by Victory Research,<ref>{{cite web|last=Guppy |first=Darius |title=The growing case for an independent Western Cape |url=https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-growing-case-for-an-independent-western-cape |access-date=18 August 2021 |website=www.spectator.co.uk |date=12 September 2020 |publisher=[[The Spectator]] |language=en}}</ref> a pollingSouth African based market research company whose clientele includes the Democratic Alliance, [[Uber]], [[British American Tobacco]], First Rand, and [[KPMG]].<ref>{{cite web|title=Client – Victory |url=https://victoryresearch.co.za/client/ |access-date=17 August 2021 |language=en-US}}</ref>
 
{| class="wikitable" style="text-align: center; line-height: 14px; font-size: 95%;"
Another poll was done by Brazilian based AtlasIntel as part of their [[2024 South African general election]] polling. It asked respondents across South Africa whether they supported Cape Independence - inclusive of the Northern and Eastern Cape.
 
{| class="wikitable" style="text-align: center; line-height: 14px; font-size: 95%;"
|+
!Date
Line 124 ⟶ 141:
|34.8%
|-
|May
2024
|AtlasIntel<sup>*</sup>[https://cdn.atlasintel.org/be005b0e-d093-4a05-acb9-b445b792f46c.pdf]
|383<sup>*</sup>
|2,308*
|±2%<sup>^</sup>
|N/A
|N/A
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| style="background: rgb(249, 193, 179);" |'''53.6%'''
|}
<small>''<sup>*</sup>Values taken for Western Cape only. Sample size for entirety of SA.''<br>
''<sup>^</sup>Margin of error for entire survey and not WC results only.''<br>
''Note: Values don't add up to 100% on the account of those not expressing an opinion or uncertain.''</small>
 
Line 150 ⟶ 169:
! style="background:Lavender; color:Black"|% of total<br />valid votes
|-
|[[2009 Western Cape provincial election|2009]] || 2,552 || 0.13% || 5,356,800 || 1,967,751 || 75.4% || [[Cape Party|Cape Party]] (2,552)|| Cape Party formed in 2007
|-
|[[2014 Western Cape provincial election|2014]] || – || – || 6,016,92x (2013116 300 (estimate) || 2,121,153 || 72.76% || – || No pro-independence parties competed.
|-
|[[2019 Western Cape provincial election|2019]] || 9,331 || 0.45% || 6,844,272 (estimate) || 2,057,212 || 66.28% || [[Cape Party|Cape Party]] (9,331) || Cape Party competes again after 10 year absence
|-
|[[2024 Western Cape provincial election|2024]] || TBD33,581 (67,162)<sup>*</sup> || TBD1.71% (4.1%)<sup>*</sup> || 7,497,706 (estimate) || TBD1,958,280 || TBD59.48% || [[Freedom Front Plus | FF+]] (TBD28,471);<br>[[Referendum Party (South Africa) | RP ]] (TBD5,110);<br>[[National Coloured Congress|NCC]]<sup>*</sup> (TBD46,770) || FF+ announces their support for independence.<br>Newly formed RP competes.<br>Cape Party reformed into [[Cape Independence Party | CIP]] fails to qualify
|-
|}
<small>*The NCC waswere ambiguous in their stance but havehad previously publicly voiced support.<br></small>
<sup>†</sup>The [[United Independent Movement | UIM]] (TBD) supported a referendum.</small>
 
== Arguments used by supporters ==
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=== Non-racialism ===
Some proponents of independence claim that South Africa is a highly racialised country. TheIn CIAGan pointsAugust out that2023 pollingpoll conducted inby the WesternCIAG, Capeonly on31% theirof behalfBlack foundrespondents agreed that 69%"I ofbelieve Black-African people believedthat South Africa inherently belongs to Black-Africanseveryone andwho alllives otherhere groupsregardless shouldof behavetheir asrace", guests.compared In contrast,with 80% of Coloureds and 88% of Whites agreed that South Africa belongs to all those who live in it.<ref name="poll_23" />
 
Likewise, proponents argue that race-based laws, such as [[Black Economic Empowerment|Black Economic Empowerment (BEE)]]—which is a policy aimed at addressing the [[Wealth inequality in South Africa|inequalities]] created by [[apartheid]] implemented by the national government—unfairly discriminate against most inhabitants of the Western Cape. Coloured leaders such as Fadiel Adams state that under the current BEE laws, coloured people are unfairly discriminated against. As national demographic quotas (nine percent) are imposed upon a region where coloureds make up the majority.<ref>{{cite web|last=Patel |first=Nereesha |date=7 June 2018 |title=Who Are 'Gatvol Capetonian', And Why Do They Hate Politicians So Much? |url=https://www.2oceansvibe.com/2018/06/07/who-are-gatvol-capetonian-and-why-do-they-hate-politicians-so-much/ |access-date=9 October 2021 |website=2oceansvibe News {{!}} South African and international news |language=en-GB}}</ref>
 
Proponents hence campaign on making an independent Cape non-racial where race-based laws (and even racial categories) are outlawed.<ref name=":15">{{cite web|last=Craig |first=Phil |title=OPINION {{!}} Dear Melanie, Cape independence stinks of democracy, not racism! |url=https://www.news24.com/news24/columnists/guestcolumn/opinion-dear-melanie-cape-independence-stinks-of-democracy-not-racism-20210413 |access-date=17 August 2021 |website=News24 |language=en-US}}</ref><ref name=":10">{{cite web|date=2 June 2019 |title=Western Cape Independence Activists Encouraged by Provincial Election Results |url=https://theworldunreported.com/2019/06/02/western-cape-independence/ |access-date=19 August 2021 |website=The World Unreported |language=en-GB}}</ref>
 
=== Stability ===
Proponents of Cape independence have cited the [[2021 South African unrest|riots in the east and the north of the country in July 2021]] as evidence of social instability in South Africa.<ref name=":12" /> People of the Western Cape believe that their home province is better governed than the rest of the country – a sympathy shared with a number of other South Africans more broadly.<ref name=":8" /> Supporters of Cape independence hence argue that an independent Cape would be better run, and be able to provide more stability to its people.<ref>{{cite web|date=3 February 2021 |title=Can anyone prove the Western Cape is not better off alone? – Cape Independence |url=https://www.biznews.com/thought-leaders/2021/02/03/cape-independence-wc |access-date=30 August 2021 |website=BizNews.com |language=en-GB}}</ref> However, given that the Western Cape houses some of the regions with the worst murder rates in South Africa, it is uncertain if this perception of stability is true.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Felix |first=Jason |title=343 murders in 90 days: Crime stats reveal that five of SA's most dangerous areas are in Cape Town |url=https://www.news24.com/news24/politics/parliament/343-murders-in-90-days-crime-stats-reveal-that-five-of-sas-most-dangerous-areas-are-in-cape-town-20231118 |access-date=2024-01-11 |website=News24 |language=en-US}}</ref>
 
== Criticism ==
=== Accusations of racism ===
[[File:CIAG Press Conference-0001.png|thumb|right|Committee members of the Cape Independence Advisory Group.]]
The Cape independence movement has been met with criticism involving racism.<ref>{{cite web|first=Lebelihle |last=Bhengu |title='A Boer republic is a failed dream' – Ndlozi responds to calls for Western Cape independence |url=https://www.timeslive.co.za/politics/2020-11-12-a-boer-republic-is-a-failed-dream-ndlozi-responds-to-calls-for-western-cape-independence/ |access-date=17 August 2021 |website=TimesLIVE |language=en-ZA}}</ref> Some critics allege that the movement is an attempt to create a white ethnonationalist state and seeking to reimplement the former apartheid system.<ref>{{cite web|last=Poplak |first=Richard |date=3 February 2019 |title=TRAINSPOTTER: Cape of Good Nope — How a fringe party heralds arrival of brave new balkanisation |url=https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2019-02-04-cape-of-good-nope-how-a-fringe-party-heralds-arrival-of-brave-new-balkanisation/ |access-date=17 August 2021 |website=Daily Maverick |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|last=Verwoerd |first=Melanie |title=Melanie Verwoerd {{!}} Wexit: Should the Western Cape become independent?|url=https://www.news24.com/news24/columnists/melanieverwoerd/melanie-verwoerd-wexit-should-the-western-cape-become-independent-20210408 |access-date=17 August 2021 |website=News24 |language=en-US}}</ref> Polling conducted by Victory Research on behalf of the Cape Independence Advocacy Group (CIAG) in Q3 2023 found that 62% of white people, 78% of coloured people, and 31% of black people supported Cape independence.<ref name=poll_23>{{Cite web |last=CIAG Website |date= August 2023 |title=Victory Research Polling Data from CIAG Website 23 |url= https://uploads-ssl.webflow.com/5ea6a2f1a59e17c056703197/64ec37b43999b3c2c596f534_Results%20Chart.png |access-date=11 January 2024 |website=CIAG}}</ref>
 
In April 2022, the CIAG was accused of racism for a pictograph which depicted the rest of South Africa as black and the Western Cape as shades of brown, black, and white. This was displayed alongside two other images with the imagery of the USSR and ANC over South Africa, with only the Western Cape showing the Ukrainian and Democratic Alliance colours under the heading "We're Just Different".<ref name="capetownetc.com">{{Cite web |last=Nefdt |first=Ashleigh |date=4 April 2022 |title='We're Just Different' pictograph lands CIAG in hot water over perceived racism |url=https://www.capetownetc.com/news/were-just-different-pictograph-lands-ciag-in-hot-water-over-perceived-racism/ |access-date=2022-04-05 |website=www.capetownetc.com}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |last=Nkanjeni |first=Unathi |date=4 April 2022 |title=Cape Independence Advocacy Group apologises for 'racist' tweet |url=https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2022-04-04-cape-independence-advocacy-group-apologises-for-racist-tweet/ |website=TimesLIVE}}</ref>
 
=== Legality arguments ===
Critics argue that a constitutional amendment would be required, as Section 235 of the South African Constitution, while formally and officially establishing ''"the right of self-determination of any community sharing a common cultural and language heritage"'', does not place a legal obligation for the National Assembly to respect this right to self determination; and hence, that a referendum would be non-binding; nor does it provide a framework for a territory of the Republic to secede.<ref>{{cite web|last=Vos |first=Pierre de |date=12 August 2020 |title=OPINIONISTA: Fringe talk of Western Cape secession is reactionary – and unachievable |url=https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/opinionista/2020-08-12-fringe-talk-of-western-cape-secession-is-reactionary-and-unachievable/ |access-date=17 August 2021 |website=Daily Maverick |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|title=Western Cape secession 'a completely dumb idea that legally can never happen' |url=https://www.capetalk.co.za/articles/392900/western-cape-secession-a-completely-dumb-idea-that-legally-can-never-happen |access-date=18 August 2021 |website=CapeTalk |language=en-ZA}}</ref> Furthermore, critics argue that advocating is tantamount to [[sedition]]<ref>{{cite web|last=Wright |first=Jonathan |date=28 July 2020 |title=Cape Independence: A Legal Question of Constitutional Compatibility |url=https://rationalstandard.com/cape-independence-a-legal-question-of-constitutional-compatibility/ |url-status=live |website=Rational Standard |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200808234053/https://rationalstandard.com/cape-independence-a-legal-question-of-constitutional-compatibility/ |archive-date=8 August 2020}}</ref> – however, former National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) spokesperson Mthunzi Mhlaga has stated that secession is a political matter.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.lawlibrary.co.za/notice/updates/2010/issue_01/recentjudgments_ecm.htm |title=InfoUpdate 1 of 2010 – Recent Judgments – Eastern Cape: Mthatha |website=www.lawlibrary.co.za |access-date=18 June 2018}}</ref>
 
=== Spectre of civil war ===
It is claimed by other opponents of the Cape independence movement that even if a successful referendum were to be held, the national government would never recognise the outcome and would commission the military to control the region, thus leading to a possible [[civil war]].<ref>{{Cite web |last=Daniel |first=Luke |date=2018-07-22 |title=Western Cape independence: Is secession from South Africa possible? |url=https://www.thesouthafrican.com/opinion/western-cape-independence-is-secession-from-south-africa-possible/ |access-date=2021-08-17 |website=The South African |language=en-ZA}}</ref><ref name=":4">{{cite web|last=Vegter |first=Ivo |date=13 August 2021 |title=Cape independence popularity boost |url=https://dailyfriend.co.za/2021/08/13/cape-independence-popularity-boost/ |access-date=17 August 2021 |website=Daily Friend |language=en-ZA}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |last=Githahu |first=Mwangi |date=16 August 2021 |title=Idea of a Western Cape secession dismissed as unrealistic, dangerous |url=https://www.iol.co.za/capeargus/news/idea-of-a-western-cape-secession-dismissed-as-unrealistic-dangerous-18d980c1-03e9-45ad-8f38-c5aad8931727 |access-date=18 August 2021 |website=www.iol.co.za |language=en}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|title=Could The Western Cape Secede? {{!}} eNCA |url=https://www.enca.com/opinion/could-western-cape-secede |access-date=18 August 2021 |website=www.enca.com |language=en}}</ref>
 
== Involved organisations ==