Ukraine’s top diplomat met with China’s foreign minister on Wednesday in talks that signaled Kyiv’s increased willingness to pursue a diplomatic solution to the war with Russia and to have China play a more central role in the effort.
周三,乌克兰外长与中国外长举行了会谈,这表明基辅方面寻求外交途径解决战争的意愿有所增强,并愿意让中国在这一努力中发挥更重要的作用。
“I am convinced that a just peace in Ukraine is in China’s strategic interests,” Dmytro Kuleba said in a statement after a meeting with Wang Yi, the Chinese official, in the southern Chinese city of Guangzhou. “China’s role as a global force for peace is important.”
“我相信,乌克兰的公正和平符合中国的战略利益,”德米特罗·库列巴在中国南方城市广州与王毅会晤后发表声明说。“中国作为全球和平力量发挥着重要的作用。”
Mr. Kuleba made clear that Ukraine attached conditions to such negotiations, saying it would only engage Russia when Moscow was “ready to negotiate in good faith.” He added: “No such readiness is currently observed on the Russian side.”
库列巴明确表示,乌克兰对此类谈判附加了条件,称只有在莫斯科“准备真诚谈判”的情况下,乌克兰才会与俄罗斯接触。他还说:“目前没有观察到俄罗斯做好了这样的准备。”
Mr. Kuleba is visiting China for the first time since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. His trip comes as Ukraine is slowly losing ground in the war and faces growing uncertainty about the level of support it will have from the West. Moscow and Kyiv briefly held peace talks in the spring of 2022 but they quickly broke down over critical issues.
这是自2022年2月俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来库列巴首次访华。此行正值乌克兰在战争中逐渐失去优势,西方对乌支持程度的不确定性与日俱增。莫斯科和基辅在2022年春天短暂举行了和平谈判,但很快就在关键问题上破裂
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For China, hosting Mr. Kuleba reflects the country’s ambition to play a bigger role in global security challenges as a counterweight to the United States. It also serves to rebut Western criticism of Beijing’s close alignment with Russia.
对中国来说,接待库列巴反映出它希望在全球安全挑战中发挥更大作用,以此制衡美国的雄心。这也有助于反驳西方对北京与俄罗斯结盟的批评。
Mr. Wang said China was committed to finding a political solution to the crisis, adding that while the timing was not yet right, Moscow and Kyiv had “sent signals of their willingness to negotiate to varying degrees,” according to a readout from China’s Foreign Ministry.
根据中国外交部的新闻通稿,王毅表示,中国致力于推动危机政治解决,并表示,虽然时机还不成熟,但莫斯科和基辅已经在“不同程度发出愿意谈判的信号”。
Dmitri S. Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, told reporters Mr. Kuleba’s reported openness to negotiations with Russia was “in unison with our position” and added that Russia has never refused talks.
克里姆林宫发言人德米特里·佩斯科夫告诉记者,报道中库列巴对与俄罗斯谈判持开放态度“与我们的立场一致”,并称俄罗斯从未拒绝过谈判。
Ukrainian and Western officials reject the idea that Russia is open to good-faith peace talks. They describe the Kremlin’s frequent messages about negotiations as a propaganda ruse designed to obfuscate the Kremlin’s determination to force Ukraine to capitulate.
乌克兰和西方官员拒绝接受俄罗斯愿意进行真诚和平谈判的说法。他们认为,克里姆林宫频繁发出的谈判信息是一种宣传策略,目的是混淆克里姆林宫迫使乌克兰投降的决心。
President Vladimir V. Putin’s cease-fire conditions — that Ukraine gives up four frontline regions that Russia partly controls, and that Kyiv pledges to never join the NATO military alliance — are a nonstarter for Ukraine, leaving little to no room for negotiations. Ukraine, for its part, wants to regain full control of its territory and to join NATO, which is anathema to Moscow.
普京总统提出的停火条件——乌克兰放弃俄罗斯部分控制的四个前线地区,基辅承诺永远不会加入北约军事联盟——对乌克兰来说是无法接受的,几乎没有谈判的余地。乌克兰方面则希望重新获得对其领土的完全控制,并加入北约,而这正是莫斯科深恶痛绝的。
泽连斯基总统上个月在瑞士举行的和平峰会上。中国曾试图在莫斯科和基辅之间进行调解,但很快遭到欧洲领导人的拒绝。
泽连斯基总统上个月在瑞士举行的和平峰会上。中国曾试图在莫斯科和基辅之间进行调解,但很快遭到欧洲领导人的拒绝。 Urs Flueeler/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
China’s previous attempt to mediate between Russia and Ukraine, with a 12-point plan it put forward in 2023, was quickly dismissed by European leaders. Beijing had since eschewed a public role in the war, declining to participate in a Ukrainian-held peace summit in Switzerland last month because Russia was not invited.
中国此前曾试图在俄乌之间进行调解,并于2023年提出了12点计划,但很快就被欧洲领导人驳回。自那以后,北京一直避免在这场战争中扮演公开角色。上个月,北京拒绝参加乌克兰在瑞士举行的和平峰会,因为俄罗斯没有受到邀请。
The summit eventually failed to rally support from regional powers such as India and Saudi Arabia. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, recently said Ukraine aimed to hold a second peace summit later this year, ahead of the U.S. presidential election in November, and that Russia should participate.
那次峰会最终未能获得印度和沙特阿拉伯等地区大国的支持。乌克兰总统泽连斯基最近表示,乌克兰计划今年晚些时候,在11月美国总统大选之前举行第二次和平峰会,俄罗斯应该参加。
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Beijing now may be calculating that the time is right to step in, partly based on a belief that Ukraine may be more realistic about how the war might end, said Yun Sun, the director of the China program at the Stimson Center, a foreign affairs think tank in Washington.
华盛顿外交事务智库史汀生中心中国项目主任孙韵表示,北京现在可能认为介入的时机已经成熟,部分原因是相信乌克兰可能对战争将如何结束有了更加现实的看法。
“The Chinese wanted to play the role of a peacemaker and they weren’t able to before because the timing was not mature, in that Ukraine still believed that it could prevail in winning the war on its own terms,” Ms. Sun said.
“中国人想扮演和和平缔造者的角色,但他们之前没能做到,因为时机还不成熟,当时乌克兰仍然相信可以按照自己的方式赢得战争,”孙韵说。
In Kyiv, there has been a growing understanding that peace talks without China’s participation “will not be meaningful,” said Nataliya Butyrska, an expert on Ukrainian-Asian relations at the Kyiv-based New Europe Center, a foreign policy think tank.
位于基辅的外交政策智库新欧洲中心的乌克兰—亚洲关系专家娜塔莉亚·布蒂尔斯卡说,在基辅,人们日益认识到,没有中国参与的和平谈判“将没有意义”。
“China is a country that can push Russia to engage in peace talks,” Ms. Butyrska said, adding that Mr. Kuleba’s visit partly aimed to secure Beijing’s participation in the second peace summit.
“中国是一个可以推动俄罗斯参与和平谈判的国家,”布蒂尔斯卡说。她还表示,库列巴访华在一定程度上是为了确保北京参加第二次和平峰会。
Ukraine wants to speed up peace talks partly because of the prospect of a Trump victory in the U.S. presidential election this autumn, she said. Mr. Trump’s vow to end the war quickly has raised fears in Kyiv that he would push for a peace deal that would allow Russia to keep the territory it occupies today and leave it in a position to attack Ukraine again.
她指出,乌克兰希望加快和平谈判,部分原因是特朗普有望在今年秋天的美国总统大选中获胜。特朗普誓言要迅速结束战争,这让基辅担心他会推动一项和平协议,允许俄罗斯保留目前占领的领土,并使其有能力再次攻击乌克兰。
The Ukrainian army is also on the back foot along a frontline stretching more than 600 miles, as Russian troops creep forward and capture towns. Although the vast majority of the population is adamantly opposed to Russia’s maximalist peace terms, there has been growing acceptance of the need for peace talks.
乌克兰军队在将近1000公里的前线处境被动,俄罗斯军队正在缓慢前进并占领城镇。尽管绝大多数人坚决反对俄罗斯提出的极端和平条件,但越来越多的人接受了和平谈判的必要性。
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China is in a unique position to mediate because its top leader, Xi Jinping, has a good relationship with Mr. Putin. The two have met dozens of times as presidents of their countries. Beijing also has economic leverage over Moscow, said Alexander Gabuev, the director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, a research group.
由于中国最高领导人习近平与普京关系良好,中国在调停方面处于独特位置。两人以各自国家最高元首的身份进行了数十次会晤。研究机构卡内基俄罗斯欧亚中心主任亚历山大·加布耶夫说,北京也对莫斯科还有经济影响力。
“In theory they can use that leverage to push Russia,” Mr. Gabuev said.
加布耶夫说,“理论上,他们可以利用这种影响力来推动俄罗斯。”