The Philadelphia Phillies will begin a three-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers on Monday at American Family Field. It's a potential playoff preview as we share our MLB odds series and make a Phillies-Brewers prediction and pick.
Phillies-Brewers Projected Starters
Ranger Suarez vs. Aaron Civale
Ranger Suarez (12-6) with a 3.05 ERA
Last Start: Suarez labored in his last outing, going 5 1/3 innings, allowing four earned runs and 12 hits while striking out two and walking two in a no-decision against the Tampa Bay Rays.
2024 Road Splits: Suarez has been better on the road, going 7-4 with a 2.60 ERA over 12 starts on the road.
Aaron Civale (6-8) with a 4.57 ERA
Last Start: Civale was decent in his last outing, going 5 1/3 innings, allowing two earned runs and three hits while striking out two and walking one in a win over the San Francisco Giants.
2024 Home Splits: Civale has been better at home, going 4-5 with a 3.30 ERA over 15 starts at home.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Phillies-Brewers Odds
Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+146)
Moneyline: -112
Milwaukee Brewers: +1.5 (-178)
Moneyline: -104
Over: 8 (-118)
Under: 8 (-104)
How to Watch Phillies vs. Brewers
Time: 7:40 PM ET/4:40 PM PT
TV: Bally Sports Wisconsin
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Phillies Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Phillies currently have the best record in baseball. Ultimately, they continue to find ways to get the job done, even in the face of numerous injuries, especially to Alec Bohm, their hits leader who just recently came back from a two-week stint on the injured list. Bohm is among the players looking to get things going as they start an integral series against the Brew Crew.
Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos must recover and do more in this series, and over the final two weeks before the playoffs begin. Critically, both can be the catalyst for this team to dominate. Harper has struggled against the Brewers, batting .219 with 50 hits, 13 home runs, 32 RBIs, and 33 runs over 63 games. Thus, he must figure it out against a tough opponent. Castellanos has done fairly better. So far, he is hitting .273 with 62 hits, 13 home runs, 41 RBIs, and 37 runs in his career against the Brewers.
Trea Turner is probably the most important player in this series. Yes, he leads things off for the Phillies and can be the difference between a big inning or a down one. Turner has only cobbled five hits over his past five games. Unfortunately, that will not get the job done and he must figure it out to help the Phillies.
Suarez has struggled recently, not getting a quality start since July 12. Unfortunately, he just has not been able to get the job done and it will get even tougher against one of the best lineups in baseball. When Suarez comes out of the game, he will turn it over to a bullpen that is 13th in baseball in team ERA. The Phillies also have not had an established closer, but Jeff Hoffman and Matt Strahm has been taking turns lately.
The Phillies will cover the spread if Bohm, Turner, Harper, and Castellanos can all deliver grade-A quality hits. Then, they need a good outing from Suarez.
Why The Brewers Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Brewers can clinch the division this week if they can keep winning. Remarkably, they have had an exceptional season. But this is where it gets tougher as they face a team they may have to get past in the playoffs. Therefore, they need two of their weapons to contribute.
William Contreras has had a good season. Now, he hopes to keep it going. Contreras is batting .306 with 38 hits, six home runs, 18 RBIs, and 18 runs over 33 career games against the Phillies. Also, he has hit .286 with 12 hits, one home run, four RBIs, and four runs over his past 10 games against them. The Brewers need much more out of Willy Adames. Sadly, he is hitting just .153 with only nine hits, two home runs, seven RBIs, and five runs over 16 games against Philadelphia.
Civale has only notched one quality start in four chances. Sadly, he has also fallen on hard times, being unable to carry the Brewers past the fifth inning. When Civale exits, he will turn it over to the third-best bullpen in baseball. Devin Williams is the established closer after returning from an injury and Tyler Megill did a great job filling in while Williams was out.
The Brewers will cover the spread if Contreras and Adames can both clobber the baseball. Then, they need Civale to avoid making mistakes against Harper and the other big bats in this lineup.
Final Phillies-Brewers Prediction & Pick
The Phillies are 74-75 against the run line, while the Brewers are 79-70. Additionally, the Phillies are 37-33 against the run line on the road, while the Brewers are 37-34 at home. Neither pitcher is intimidating right now. Somehow, both teams are remarkably close at covering the odds. But we can see a scenario where the Brew Crew come out on top because they have been slightly better at covering the odds. Go with the Brewers to cover.
Final Phillies-Brewers Prediction & Pick: Milwaukee Brewers: +1.5 (-178)
Follow Us
Subscribe
