Predicting Long-Term Citations from Short-Term Linguistic Influence

Sandeep Soni, David Bamman, Jacob Eisenstein


Abstract
A standard measure of the influence of a research paper is the number of times it is cited. However, papers may be cited for many reasons, and citation count is not informative about the extent to which a paper affected the content of subsequent publications. We therefore propose a novel method to quantify linguistic influence in timestamped document collections. There are two main steps: first, identify lexical and semantic changes using contextual embeddings and word frequencies; second, aggregate information about these changes into per-document influence parameters by estimating a high-dimensional Hawkes process with a low-rank parameter matrix. The resulting measures of linguistic influence are predictive of future citations. Specifically, the estimate of linguistic influence from the two years after a paper’s publication is correlated with and predictive of its citation count in the following three years. This is demonstrated using an online evaluation with incremental temporal training/test splits, in comparison with a strong baseline that includes predictors for initial citation counts, topics, and lexical features.
Anthology ID:
2022.findings-emnlp.418
Volume:
Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: EMNLP 2022
Month:
December
Year:
2022
Address:
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Editors:
Yoav Goldberg, Zornitsa Kozareva, Yue Zhang
Venue:
Findings
SIG:
Publisher:
Association for Computational Linguistics
Note:
Pages:
5700–5716
Language:
URL:
https://aclanthology.org/2022.findings-emnlp.418
DOI:
10.18653/v1/2022.findings-emnlp.418
Bibkey:
Cite (ACL):
Sandeep Soni, David Bamman, and Jacob Eisenstein. 2022. Predicting Long-Term Citations from Short-Term Linguistic Influence. In Findings of the Association for Computational Linguistics: EMNLP 2022, pages 5700–5716, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Association for Computational Linguistics.
Cite (Informal):
Predicting Long-Term Citations from Short-Term Linguistic Influence (Soni et al., Findings 2022)
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https://aclanthology.org/2022.findings-emnlp.418.pdf
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