CropWatch production estimates are based on a combination of remote-sensing models combined with CropWatch global agro-climatic and agronomic indicators, as well as meteorological data from over 20,000 meteorological weather stations around the world. The major grain crops (maize, rice, wheat) and soybean production of 47 major producers and exporters are estimated and predicted from January to April 2024. This assessment included remote sensing monitoring and verification of yield for major staple crops (maize, rice, wheat, and soybean) that were either in their growing period or close to harvest.

Global Crop Production Index

From January to April 2024, the global CPI is 1.01 (Figure 5.1), which is generally close to the average, indicating that global agricultural production is largely stable. Over the past five years, the CPI time series reveals fluctuations in global agricultural production. Conditions were favorable in 2019 and 2020, with the CPI reaching 1.01 and 1.05, respectively. However, it declined to 0.96 in 2021 and has since gradually returned to normal levels.

Figure 5.1 Global CPI Time Series graph

The global food production is favorable in 2024. Specifically, global wheat production is at 750 million tonnes, an increase of 9.61 million tonnes from the previous year, marking a growth of 1.3%; soybean production in South America is projected to 153 million tonnes, up by 4.72 million tonnes, a 3.2% increase; global maize production reached 1.05 billion tonnes, with an increase of 4.76 million tonnes or 0.5%; and global rice production is estimated at 755 million tonnes, with a slight increase of 0.63 million tonnes or 0.1%. From January to mid-May 2024, the overall agroclimatic conditions in the major wheat-producing countries of the Northern Hemisphere were generally normal, and the wheat production was favorable. In South Asia and Southeast Asia, dry-season rice largely relies on irrigation, resulting in relatively small fluctuations in yield, and the overall production is generally normal. In 2024, the major producing countries worldwide experienced relatively mild agricultural disasters, and the production shows an increasing trend.

5.1 2024 cereal and soybean production estimates in million tonnes. Δ is the percentage of change of 2024 production when compared with corresponding 2023 values.

Maize

The total maize production in countries of the Southern Hemisphere and the equatorial region is 207 million tonnes, marking an increase of 4.76 million tonnes or 2.4%. There is a significant disparity in maize production among the major maize-producing countries in the Southern Hemisphere. In Argentina, conditions were more favorable than a year ago. The maize growing season benefited from abundant rainfall and favorable temperatures. Although some of the main producing areas were affected by pests and diseases in the later stages of maize growth, the overall impact on national maize production was limited. With a 4.5% increase in the national maize planting area and a 7.0% increase in average yield, maize production has rebounded to 55.585 million tonnes, an increase by 11.9%. In Brazil, the rainfall showed a decreasing trend from the south to the north: the southern region experienced abundant rainfall while the central and northern regions suffered from drought. The drought has caused a further reduction of 1.2% in the first maize yield in central and southern Brazil for the 2022-2023 season, amounting to only 21.9 million tonnes. The second maize crop faced reduced planting areas due to drought during the planting period, but increased rainfall in the main producing regions since February has led to higher yields than last year. The total national maize production is estimated at 100.74 million tonnes with a slight increase of 0.1%. Influenced by El Niño, southern Africa has experienced severe drought from October 2023 to the present, with rainfall during the monitoring period decreasing by 30-40% compared to the 15-year average. This has led to delayed maize planting in countries such as South Africa, Zambia, and Mozambique in Southern Africa, and continuous drought during the growing period has caused rain-fed agriculture to suffer, with maize yields decreasing by 6.3%, 7.3%, and 2.8% respectively, and production decreasing by 9.6%, 8.1%, and 2.8% respectively. The region is facing food shortages. However, in Angola, located in southwestern Africa, agroclimatic conditions were generally favorable, with slight increases in both maize planting area and yield, leading to a 1.3% increase in maize production. In Kenya, the drought stopped, resulting in an improvement in crop growth, with increases in both maize planting area and yield, resulting in a restorative increase in maize production of 8.7%.

Rice

Countries in Southeast Asia and South Asia are among the most important rice producers and exporters globally. Affected by the El Niño, the dry season rice growing period was dominated by dry and hot weather in Southeast Asia in 2024, leading to an overall poor production. Cambodia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Vietnam saw slight decreases in both dry season rice planting area and yield, resulting in a respective decrease in production of 6.6%, 3.7%, 2.5%, and 1.3%. In Myanmar, rice yield saw a slight increase, but due to a decrease in planting area, rice production decreased by 0.9%. Indonesia experienced an increase in rice yield, leading to a 3.1% increase in rice production. The overall rice production in South Asia is generally favorable. India, as the largest rice producer and a major exporter in South Asia and Southeast Asia, saw a slight increase of 0.2% in rice planting area and 0.8% in yield, leading to an increase in rice production of 1.7 million tonnes or 1.0%, which to some extent compensated for the reduction in rice production in other countries in the region. In Sri Lanka, rice production increased by 2.5%. Bangladesh experienced a slight decrease in rice yield, resulting in a 1.2% reduction of rice production. Among the countries in the Southern Hemisphere, Angola, Argentina, and Brazil had favorable agroclimatic conditions in their rice-producing regions, with rice yield increasing by 4.4%, 21.0%, and 2.8% respectively, leading to an increase in rice production to 50 thousand tonnes, 2.2 million tonnes, and 11.4 million tonnes, with a respective increase of 4.8%, 22.6%, and 2.4%.

Wheat

The global wheat production for the 2023-2024 season is projected to be 750 million tonnes, an increase of 9.61 million tonnes or 1.3%. In most wheat-producing countries in Asia, the agroclimatic conditions have been favorable, with no widespread agricultural disasters occurring from the sowing in November to the grain-filling stages. The only exception was Afghanistan, where drought conditions led to a 6.6% decrease in wheat production, all other Asian countries achieved an increase in wheat production, contributing significantly to the global increase in wheat production. Among them, China, as the largest wheat producer, saw an increase in both planting area and yield, resulting in a wheat production of 137.55 million tonnes, an increase of 2.1%. Satellite remote sensing monitoring shows that in South Asia, the wheat planting area in India and Pakistan increased by 3.8% and 3.7%, respectively. However, higher temperatures during the grain-filling period led to a shortened duration, causing the yield to decrease by 1.1% and 2.5% respectively. The wheat production of the two countries was 100.16 million tonnes and 25.35 million tonnes, with an increase of 2.6% and 1.0% respectively. In Central Asia, wheat planting area and yield are increased. Wheat production in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan are increased by 9.4%, 6.2%, and 11.4%, respectively. The wheat production in European is mixed. Russia, Romania, Poland, Italy, and Germany have all seen increases in both wheat planting area and forecasted yield, leading to an increase in wheat production of 2.7%, 6.9%, 2.1%, 2.6%, and 0.2%, respectively. However, wheat production in the UK, France, and Hungary decreased by 1.0%, 2.3%, and 4.1%, respectively. In Ukraine, the main wheat-producing regions experienced favorable agroclimatic conditions, with the average yield expected to increase by 2.7%. However, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine led to a significant reduction in the planting area by 13.7%, with wheat production dropping to 20.06 million tonnes, a decrease of 11.3%, which is significantly lower than in previous years. In North America, the main wheat-producing regions in the United States and Canada experienced favorable weather conditions and suitable soil moisture. For both countries, an increase in yield is forecasted. The wheat planting area in the United States increased by 1.0%, leading to a 4.0% increase in wheat production; while the wheat planting area in Canada decreased by 3.6%, resulting in a 1.8% decrease in wheat production. In the Middle East, wheat production in Turkey, Iran, and Syria increased by 6.5%, 6.6%, and 21.8%, respectively, with production reaching 20 million tonnes, 12.84 million tonnes, and 3.83 million tonnes. In Egypt, wheat production is entirely dependent on irrigation, with planting area and yield relatively stable, resulting in a slight decrease in total wheat production by 0.3%. A severe drought occurred in North Africa, with wheat production in Morocco expected to plummet by 32%, dropping to 4.72 million tonnes, the lowest in nearly a decade. Algeria also experienced drought conditions, but the impact on crops was lighter than in 2023, leading to a significant increase in wheat production by 18.5%. The global wheat production is favorable, but the crisis in Ukraine is expected to keep the global wheat supply and demand tight. 

Soybean

In South America, the two dominant exporters Brazil and Argentina, have a combined soybean production of 153 million tonnes, an increase of 4.72 million tonnes or 3.2%. Although Brazil and Argentina are neighboring countries, the agroclimatic conditions and soybean production in the two countries are significantly different. In Brazil, soybeans suffered from persistent drought conditions during the growing period, leading to a decrease in both the soybean planting area and yield by 2.0% and 1.6% respectively, with the total production expected to be 102.85 million tonnes, a decrease of 3.76 million tonnes or 3.5%. In Argentina, the soybean growing period experienced good rainfall, resulting in favorable agroclimatic conditions for crop growth and development. Compared to the severe drought of the 2022-2023 season, the average soybean yield significantly increased by 4.4%, and remote sensing monitoring shows that the soybean planting area increased by 11.4%. The soybean production is expected to reach 50.49 million tonnes, an increase of 8.48 million tonnes or 20.2%.